#加密市场观察 #BTC走势分析

Recent Trend Performance

- Price Volatility: On March 3, 2025, it reached a historical high of $89,000, hit $92,000 on March 6, and fluctuated between $84,600 and $85,100 on March 8.

- Market Sentiment Instability: The total market value of global cryptocurrencies decreased by about 1% in one day on March 8, with trading volume down by 9.5%, indicating a rise in investor risk aversion.

Short-term Bullish Driving Factors

- Policy Factors: Trump called for "never selling Bitcoin" and proposed establishing a crypto reserve, but the market did not respond positively, leading to a price drop, indicating that policy expectations have been partially exhausted. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaching on March 18, if a hawkish stance is maintained or the rate cut is less than expected, it may further suppress market liquidity and exacerbate BTC price volatility.

- Technical Factors: Attention should be paid to the support range of $83,000-$84,600; if it falls below this range, it may trigger large-scale liquidation of long positions. Resistance for a rebound is concentrated between $89,250 and $90,500; if it breaks through, it needs to be supported by trading volume, otherwise it may continue the downward trend.

- Market Capital Factors: The battle between bulls and bears is intense, with current short liquidations concentrated around $94,600, while long liquidation pressure is moving downwards, indicating a lack of confidence in a short-term rebound and a tendency towards short-selling strategies at highs. However, with most altcoins declining, there is a trend for capital to seek refuge in BTC.

Medium to Long-term Bullish Expectations

- Positive Aspects: Institutional accumulation and the compliance process have not changed the logic of a medium to long-term bull market. If the price corrects to around $73,800, it could be seen as an opportunity for spot bottom-fishing, with potential rebound space reaching $12,000-$17,000.

- Risk Factors: Uncertainties in policy still exist, such as Trump's crypto reserve plan potentially facing obstacles in Congress. Changes in the regulatory environment, macroeconomic situation, and market competition could all impact BTC's medium to long-term bullish trend.