Timing and Size

In the crypto market, making significant profits is not just about picking the right project but more importantly about entering at the right time (Timing) and betting with the appropriate size (Size).

1. Timing – If you enter too early, you are considered wrong

Investing too early is no different from investing incorrectly, as the market may not be ready and you could lose money or wait a long time for profits. Some typical examples:

👉Zhu Su (3AC) was overly optimistic too early: Three Arrows Capital (3AC) collapsed in June 2022 after misjudging the dynamics of the market cycle. They thought the market would continue to rise, but it turned out to be a prolonged downturn.

👉Stanley Druckenmiller bought tech stocks right at the peak of the dot-com bubble: He was correct about the long-term potential of the tech sector, but due to incorrect timing, he still incurred losses or failed to achieve high performance.

👉Panic selling BTC during the COVID crash in 2020: Many investors sold Bitcoin in a panic during the COVID crash in March 2020, but then missed one of the fastest recoveries in history (V-shaped recovery).

2. Size – If you make the right bet but it's too small, you still won't get rich

Even if you choose the right asset to invest in, if you only place a very small bet, you still won't see significant profits. Some real-life examples:

👉The CIO of a large crypto fund once shilled SOL at $15-$20, but the fund only returned 1.7x for the LPs due to the small position size, while those who made large bets multiplied their accounts by dozens of times.

👉Many retail investors only invested 1% of their assets in crypto in 2019: Although they were correct about the market trend, their small bets caused them to miss out on massive profits during the 2021 bull run.

👉Many retail investors bought NVDA in mid-2023 but allocated too little capital: As a result, they missed out on the entire historical growth of NVIDIA stock.

Have you mastered both of these factors in this cycle?

If you are only good at picking projects but not timing, you will lose money. If you are good at timing but your bets are too small, you won't make much.

In this cycle, which skills have you improved?

Source: @XtineFang - Managing Partner PSE Trading