The relationship between international situation and Bitcoin price
1. What impact will the United States’ troubles have on the cryptocurrency world?
1. When there are many wars, money will go to safe places
The United States has recently been stirring up trouble in the Middle East and Russia in order to divert attention from domestic economic problems (such as ordinary people not being able to afford housing and the huge gap between the rich and the poor). It's like when Mr. Wang's house is on fire, he instead stares at the neighbor's leaking water - when the international situation becomes tense, people will exchange the money in Bitcoin for gold/dollars, and Bitcoin will easily fall.
2. The Fed is like a thermostat
Now the global financial community is watching when the Fed will cut interest rates. If the United States really goes to war in the Middle East, oil prices will rise and things will become more expensive, and the Fed may not dare to cut interest rates. This is like the boss suddenly saying that he will not raise wages this year, and high-risk investments such as Bitcoin may be ignored. Recently, Bitcoin has fallen 30% from its peak, which is actually scared by these news.
2. Can Europe form a group to short sell? #美国犹他州比特币法案
1. Short selling is like betting that prices will fall
European institutions can collectively sell Bitcoin futures (like signing a contract in advance to sell the goods that have not been bought at a high price), but this is equivalent to dancing on the edge of a knife:
- Roller coaster-like fluctuations: Bitcoin has just performed a unique trick of “falling to 80,000 in three days and then rebounding to 90,000”. Short sellers may be thrown off the train.
– The dealer has not yet made a move: A large amount of Bitcoin is still in the hands of “whales” (big players), just like the biggest player at the poker table has not yet revealed his cards
– Rules may change: The government may introduce new regulations to restrict short selling at any time
2. What conditions are needed for the price to drop to $71,000?
Bitcoin is currently around $86,000. To drop another 15%, the following conditions must be met simultaneously:
- The scale of the war is expanding: for example, the war in the Middle East has spread to more countries
-The sudden interest rate hike in the United States is equivalent to a large withdrawal of global funds
– Breaking through the critical defense line: Just like when the health bar of a game hits the bottom, many algorithmic traders will follow suit and dump the market
3. The market is like a tug-of-war now
The bulls have a trump card:
- Experiencing a "Bitcoin halving" (mining rewards cut in half), which has triggered a big bull run in the past
- Large institutions are waiting for discounts to enter the market, 70,000 may be a bargain hunting opportunity
The bearish team also has a trump card:
- There are many unexpected events in the US election year (e.g. Trump said he would ban Bitcoin)
- Many speculators borrow money to bet on rising prices, which can easily lead to a series of liquidations if prices fall.
4. Advice for ordinary people
• Short-term players: If Europe really starts to sell off, 71,000 is indeed possible, but you have to tie a "stop loss rope" like walking a dog to prevent being hit in the face by a sudden rebound
• Long-term players: Hold on tight and don’t panic. Last year, Goldman Sachs predicted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000. If it falls, just treat it as a discount at the mall.
Important reminder: Cryptocurrency trading is ten times more exciting than stock trading. Recently, someone lost 1 million yuan in capital in three days and was left with only his underwear. Ordinary people can just use some pocket money to play with it. $BTC
