Hello everyone, happy weekend. Yesterday's market was loud but little action.
Three things happened last night:
1. In the morning, Trump signed related policies for the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserves and other cryptocurrency reserves, which is positive news for the crypto market.
2. At 9:30 PM, non-farm data fell below expectations, which is also good news for the financial market.
3. In the early morning, the White House hosted its first crypto conference, which is also positive news for the crypto market.
Just picking one out is beneficial, yet the market hasn’t risen; instead, it has fluctuated back and forth, ultimately falling. This raises doubts about whether there will truly be an opportunity for the crypto industry by 2025.
Last night many people stayed up waiting for the good news from the crypto summit, only to find Trump still just talking nonsense, without any substantial comments about crypto at critical moments. With his style, how could retail investors easily make money? But it’s understood that from the time Trump started issuing coins, he has always played with a hidden knife in humor, smiling at the crypto world while actually taking retail investors' money, and even occasionally snatching coins from large holders.
Moreover, it should be noted that regardless of how much the crypto summit and strategic reserves are promoted, without capital entering the market, everything is just talk. The so-called strategic reserves now are merely an acknowledgment of BTC's legitimacy, like writing an empty check for the market, which has no practical significance.
Ultimately, the future market still needs to wait, waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and other factors to warm up market liquidity. Only then may we see real opportunities. If it coincides with loose policies, the market could soar!
Currently, the market is maintaining a consolidation trend, which means it’s a pause in the middle of a larger trend. We still need to focus on the area around 91500, which is a very critical position. If we can't break above it, it’s all in vain. The market also lacks major news to stimulate it, so we can only hold on.
The weekend has completely low liquidity; there are no market makers. A small amount of capital can lift the market, while a small number of chips can bring it down. We still need to be cautious about risks and hope to get through the weekend steadily.
Next, we will just wait and see if Bitcoin can stabilize at the $85,000 level, and then see if there are any events that can break through the $85,000-91,500 range or even $95,000.
The crypto summit has ended. Moving forward, we need to return to macro expectations, focusing on inflation, dot plots, and balance sheet reduction. Additionally, during this phase, do not engage in battles without certainty; one must understand restraint, be strict with oneself, and having USDT will help avoid panic in situations, so as not to miss later market opportunities.
As for altcoins, there are only two directions worth paying attention to in the short term: one is mainstream altcoins led by the U.S., divided into three categories:
1. Already included in strategic reserves: Cryptocurrencies like ADA, SOL, XRP, and SUI have been included in reserves and are relatively secure.
2. Not yet, but held by specific funds: AAVE, LINK, SEI, ONDO, etc., although they haven't been fully included in reserves, they have certain institutional backgrounds and stable holdings.
3. Altcoins with American backgrounds that may have a chance to be included in reserves: such as ALGO, NERA, IOTA, FIL, AVAX, etc. Although not fully confirmed, they still have potential opportunities to join reserves.
This year's market has basically been dominated by the Americans. Those who gain support will have a chance to rise. From the current perspective, these altcoins have shown relatively strong rebounds compared to other cryptocurrencies and have been relatively resilient. Therefore, during the oscillating downturn, it’s possible to enter the market at lower prices and conduct some swing trading, which can yield both coins and profits.
Another trend worth noting is the major cryptocurrencies surrounding Bitcoin, such as SOLV. They maintain their value by staking Bitcoin, so they can resist declines during market downturns. As Bitcoin gradually becomes a strategic reserve asset, eco-projects surrounding Bitcoin may see a new wave of speculation and could attract market attention again.
As for other altcoins, most have already experienced significant declines and are now generally in a consolidation range. The market is waiting for a clear signal; once it appears, it may trigger a comprehensive rebound. So now we need to be patient and closely observe market trends, waiting for clear trends before making further layouts.