US President Trump recently announced plans to make the US a global 'Bitcoin superpower' and pledged not to sell the Bitcoin assets held by the US government. This policy is not only a significant support for the cryptocurrency industry but also contains strategic considerations regarding dollar hegemony. The following are the key points of this policy and potential impact analysis:

I. Core Policy: Establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin and hold it long-term

  1. Strategic reserve framework
    Trump signed an executive order to formally establish the US federal government's Bitcoin strategic reserve, calling it 'the virtual Fort Knox of digital gold', managed by the Treasury. This reserve is based on the approximately 200,000 Bitcoins currently held by the government (mainly obtained through law enforcement seizures) and explicitly commits to 'never sell', aiming to treat Bitcoin as a long-term national strategic asset.

  2. Policy shift intentions
    Trump criticized the Biden administration for previously selling tens of thousands of Bitcoins, claiming it missed potential revenues worth billions of dollars, and emphasized that the new policy would end the 'bureaucratic war on cryptocurrencies', promoting Bitcoin's transformation from an 'experimental asset' to a national reserve currency.

II. Supporting measures: Reshaping regulation and industry ecology

  1. Regulatory easing and framework construction

    • Plans to end the 'weaponization of regulation' by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against cryptocurrencies, dismiss current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, and establish a presidential advisory committee led by industry supporters.

    • Promote the (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act), clarifying the classification standards for cryptocurrencies (such as securities, commodities, and payment stablecoins), to provide a clear compliance pathway for the industry.

  2. Stablecoins are tied to the hegemony of the US dollar
    Treasury Secretary Bentsen pointed out that the US will consolidate the international dominance of the dollar by supporting dollar stablecoins (such as USDC, USDT). Currently, 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, and their reserve assets are heavily invested in US Treasury bonds, forming a closed loop of 'dollar - stablecoin - cryptocurrency - US financial market', strengthening the dollar's influence in the global monetary system.

III. Market Reactions and Controversies

  1. Short-term volatility and long-term expectations

    • Market indifference: Despite favorable policies, the price of Bitcoin fell by 4% shortly after the announcement due to a lack of specific government plans to 'increase BTC holdings', causing investors to doubt the short-term stimulating effects.

    • Long-term confidence: Institutions like Bitwise believe that the establishment of a strategic reserve enhances the legitimacy of Bitcoin, potentially encouraging other countries to follow suit, forming a new paradigm for global reserve assets.

  2. Internal contradictions and risks

    • Policy volatility: Trump has previously publicly criticized Bitcoin as a 'scam', and his change of attitude is questioned as political speculation. The Meme coins issued by his family (such as $TRUMP) have caused a market bloodsucking effect, exacerbating industry volatility.

    • Regulatory conflicts: Despite promises to loosen regulations, recent policies such as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have led to severe fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, indicating inherent contradictions in its policy mix.

IV. Strategic Goals: Dollar Hegemony and Geopolitical Competition

  1. Addressing the decline of the dollar's status
    International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that the dollar's share in global official reserves has fallen to 57.4% (the lowest since 1995). By integrating cryptocurrencies into the dollar system, the US aims to curb the trend of de-dollarization, especially in countering the digital currency competition from countries like China.

  2. Battle for technological dominance
    Trump claims that 'if the US does not lead in crypto technology, China will take over', and his policy intentions include attracting global crypto capital back and consolidating the US's leading position in blockchain infrastructure (such as mining farms and exchanges).

Summary and Outlook

Trump's 'Bitcoin Superpower' strategy is essentially a political tool to incorporate cryptocurrencies into the US financial hegemony system:

  • Short-term: Favorable policies may boost market confidence, but caution is needed regarding the gap between 'slogan-style commitments' and execution;

  • Long-term: If stablecoins and Bitcoin reserves develop in synergy, they may reshape the global monetary landscape, but a balance between innovation and risk control is necessary.

Investors should focus on two core variables:

  1. Federal Reserve monetary policy: The interest rate cut cycle may accelerate the integration of crypto assets and traditional finance;

  2. Geopolitical conflicts: US sanctions may drive more countries to adopt cryptocurrencies to evade the dollar system.

As Bitwise analysts say: 'The ultimate test for Bitcoin is not technology, but whether it can become a strategic chip in the great power game.'

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