Current Context of the Bitcoin Policy Shift
In recent months, especially in 2025, we have seen significant movements in policies related to Bitcoin, particularly in the United States, which remains a key player in the global crypto market. One of the most notable developments is the narrative surrounding a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve proposed by the administration of Donald Trump, who took a pro-crypto approach following his inauguration in January 2025. This marks a notable shift from previous administrations, which fluctuated between skepticism and strict regulation.
Executive Order of January 2025: On January 23, Trump signed the executive order titled "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology." This order revoked previous policies from the Biden administration (such as Executive Order 14067) and established the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets. The goal is to foster regulatory clarity and promote innovation in blockchain, including the possibility of a strategic BTC reserve. However, so far, immediate purchases of Bitcoin by the government have not been authorized; instead, it has been delegated to the Secretary of Commerce and the Treasury to develop strategies for this.
Congress and Legislation: In parallel, the U.S. Congress is discussing several legislative proposals in 2025, such as the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act and the Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoins Act. These aim to define clear roles for the SEC and CFTC in the regulation of crypto assets, which could reduce the uncertainty that has affected traders in recent years. Additionally, figures like Senator Cynthia Lummis and Representative French Hill are pushing a pro-crypto agenda.
Market Impact
Pro-crypto policy announcements have generated volatility in Bitcoin's price, a key factor for traders like you. Here are some relevant points:
Recent Volatility: Following the signing of the executive order, Bitcoin experienced a drop from $90,000 to $84,000, followed by a partial recovery to $87,500 in recent days (around March 6-7). This reflects uncertainty about the actual implementation of these policies, as the market was expecting immediate government purchases that have not yet materialized.
Market Sentiment: Posts on X and sentiment analysis suggest long-term optimism, with speculation that a strategic reserve could further legitimize BTC, attracting institutional investment. However, the lack of concrete action has generated some frustration among short-term traders.
Institutional Outlook: Analysts like Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein predict that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 if Trump’s policies, such as a national BTC reserve, are implemented. Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy (now "Strategy") is also betting on a post-halving supply shock in 2024, which could be amplified by government purchases.
Other Global Developments
European Union: The full implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) in January 2025 has established a strict regulatory framework. While this brings clarity, some crypto businesses are migrating to friendlier jurisdictions like the U.S., which could strengthen BTC's position in the U.S. market.
China: The likelihood of China lifting its Bitcoin ban in 2025 remains low, according to data from Polymarket. This limits the positive impact that a policy shift in Asia could have on the global price.
Implications for Professional Traders
As a trader, these are the key factors you should monitor and how you could position yourself:
Technical Levels:
Support: $84,000-$85,000 has acted as a solid level following the recent correction. If maintained, it could be a good entry point for long positions.
Resistance: $90,000 remains a psychological barrier. A clear breakout with volume could signal momentum towards $100,000, especially if there are concrete news about government purchases.
Volatility: Political uncertainty will keep volatility high. Consider trading with tight stop-losses and taking advantage of intraday swings.
Short-Term Catalysts:
Announcements from the Working Group on Digital Asset Markets regarding purchasing strategies.
Progress in Congress on crypto legislation before mid-2025.
Macroeconomic data (inflation, interest rates) that could influence the narrative of BTC as a store of value.
Long-Term Strategy:
If the U.S. moves towards a Bitcoin reserve, expect an increase in institutional adoption, which could push the price towards $150,000-$200,000 in 2025, as predicted by experts like Tom Lee from Fundstrat.
Keep an eye on the spot Bitcoin ETF volume, which has grown since its approval in 2024, as an indicator of fresh capital inflow.
Critical Reflection
Although the policy shift in the U.S. is promising, it is not without risks. The lack of immediate action (such as BTC purchases) could indicate that initial enthusiasm is overvalued. Additionally, any retreat from Trump’s promises (for example, due to opposition in Congress or changing economic priorities) could trigger a significant correction. As a trader, I recommend balancing optimism with rigorous risk management.