#非农数据

A brief discussion on the non-farm payroll data to be released tonight at 21:30

The non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 21:30, and this will be the last non-farm employment report under winter time. This month's non-farm employment number is expected to be 160,000, an increase from last month's 143,000, but the ADP employment number is only 77,000, far below last month. From this ratio, the prospects for today's non-farm data are not optimistic.

In the early session, the market showed a rebound after hitting a low, and the technical aspects have already digested the volatility before the data release. There is basically no opportunity to trade before the data is announced today.

If you want to trade based on the data, you can only wait for the data to be released. The current unemployment rate is 4.0%. If the unemployment rate remains unchanged, as long as the non-farm data is below last month's 143,000, it will be favorable for the market, even if the data is at a middle level; the key is whether it can create a significant market movement.

Currently, it is very difficult to accurately predict the data results, as there are often unexpected situations. I suggest that before the data is released, without clear points, it is best to wait a bit longer. The most important thing is how the Federal Reserve will take a hawkish or dovish stance after the release of this non-farm data, which is of great concern to the market, and Powell's press conference in the evening will also become the focus.

In addition, there are also developments regarding Trump; these factors could trigger significant market movements, and everyone knows this in their hearts. So it is crucial to be well-prepared!