#比特币政策转变

Did some analysis with DS 🧐 but it seems like it didn't say much! 😂

Today's Bitcoin trend is influenced by both Trump's crypto summit and non-farm payroll data. Need to consider both fundamentals and technicals for a comprehensive forecast:

1. Short-term effects of the crypto summit

Trump has recently been actively courting the crypto community (such as accepting donations and promising to relax regulations). The summit is likely to release favorable policies, which may stimulate market sentiment. However, statements about 'illegal income reserves' have caused a brief panic (90,000 → 84,000), and the current rebound to 88,000 shows that bearish sentiment has somewhat digested. If the summit does not mention specific regulatory details and only provides slogan-like support, it may create a 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' scenario, with a resistance level to watch at the psychological barrier of 90,000.

2. Pathways of non-farm data impact

• Data exceeds expectations (>185,000): Strengthens Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, stronger USD suppresses risk assets, Bitcoin may drop toward the support level of 84,000, or even test the integer level of 80,000.

• Data below expectations (<170,000): Increased expectations for rate cuts, capital may flow back to cryptocurrencies, combined with the favorable policies from the summit to create bullish resonance, targeting the range of 93,000-95,000.

• Data meets expectations (170,000-190,000): Market reaction is muted, maintaining a fluctuation range of 84,000-90,000, waiting for next week's CPI data guidance.

3. Linked risks and strategy recommendations

The two events form a 'policy + macro' overlapping volatility. If the summit releases substantial regulatory frameworks (such as clarifying post-election policies), it may reverse the impact of non-farm data. The technical 4-hour chart shows a neutral RSI, MACD decreasing, with a short-term bias toward consolidation. Recommendations:

• Aggressive strategy: Light positioning before data release, chase long if it breaks 89,000 (target 92,000), follow short if it breaks 86,000 (target 82,000).

• Conservative strategy: Confirm the trend 30 minutes after data release, keep stop-loss within 5%, to guard against spike scenarios.

Conclusion: Non-farm data has a higher weight than summit statements. If the data is bearish (>190,000), it may trigger a plunge below 80,000; if the data is bullish + the summit supports, there is hope to break previous highs. Volatility may exceed 10%, and caution is needed for accelerated movements triggered by leveraged liquidations. $BTC