Currently, the most concerning issue in the market over the next few days is the White House crypto summit scheduled for March 7.

The core point of contention at this summit is whether the Trump administration's 'regulatory easing + strategic reserve' dual narrative can be realized. From available information, the Trump team has sent strong signals by revoking regulatory bans from the Biden era and appointing 'crypto czar' David Sachs, but the granularity of policy implementation will determine whether the market continues to support it.

The 'clarification of classification' in the regulatory framework is the most certain positive news. If Bitcoin and Ethereum are clearly defined as commodities (under CFTC jurisdiction), it will directly eliminate the shadow of SEC enforcement, and compliance costs for exchanges like Coinbase will significantly decrease, possibly driving COIN's stock price up by 10%+ in a single day.

USDT, USDC, and others will benefit from the strategic positioning of 'expanding the international dominance of the dollar,' but regulators may require issuers to be more transparent about reserves, and Tether (USDT) may face short-term pains while long-term benefits accrue to compliant stablecoins.

The symbolic significance of a strategic reserve for cryptocurrencies is greater than its actual impact; while it may temporarily stimulate BTC to break through $100,000, the Treasury cannot directly exchange fiat for tokens (it requires Congressional appropriations). A more realistic path is to encourage state governments/pension funds to allocate, which requires observing the progress of Bitcoin reserve bills in 24 states.

The market has already priced in 50% of the positive expectations (BTC rebounded from 88,000 to 93,000 before retreating). Below are the three most discussed scenarios in the market:

1. Over-Expectation Scenario (Probability 20%): Announcing the specific scale of strategic reserve funds (e.g., $10 billion) and passing the FIT21 Act, BTC will initiate a 'short squeeze' rally straight to $120,000, and altcoins may rise by 30%+.

2. Meet-Expectation Scenario (Probability 60%): A framework statement lacking details, with a pullback to the $85,000 support level after the positive news is fully priced in, high-beta assets like SOL and ADA may drop by 15%.

3. Black Swan Scenario (Probability 20%): The SEC suddenly emphasizes that 'some tokens are still securities,' triggering panic over regulatory backtracking, with BTC testing the $73,000 annual trend line.

Given the uncertainty mentioned above, the market's short-term reaction will be increased volatility. Retail investors especially need to be wary of 'buying the rumor and selling the news.'

Currently, the best trading strategy is to wait and see or allocate a bit to assets with high policy correlation (BTC, ETH, XRP), avoiding high-risk regulatory assets like anonymous coins and low liquidity altcoins.

If your spot positions are high, you can do some contract hedging: use options spread strategies (like shorting March 8 call options + going long on March 14 91k/95k call spreads) to mitigate severe fluctuations before and after the summit.

From a long-term perspective, if a regulatory framework is established, one could gradually increase holdings in Layer 1 leaders (like SOL, ETH) and compliant stablecoin issuers (like Circle); if policies fall short of expectations, keep 30% cash to wait for market panic sell-offs.

If the summit successfully promotes a 'New U.S. Crypto Policy,' it will likely trigger three major trends:

A clear regulatory framework will attract traditional asset management giants (like BlackRock, Fidelity) to increase allocations, with BTC ETF inflows potentially returning to an average of $500 million daily, aligning market capitalization closer to gold ($12 trillion). Currently, U.S. projects only account for 23% of the global newly issued chain games/NFTs (vs. 47% in Asia). A unified regulatory framework may attract developers and capital back, but we must be wary of rising KYC/AML costs pushing out small-cap tokens.

The Trump administration is attempting to shift the U.S. from a 'regulatory swamp' to an 'innovation hub,' competing with the EU (MiCA) and Singapore for the global crypto center status. If successful, New York may replace Zurich and Dubai as the top choice for institutions. The penetration of traditional finance is accelerating: institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity may launch 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve ETFs,' further blurring the lines between traditional and crypto assets, but this also means market volatility will gradually resemble that of U.S. stocks.

A new battleground in geopolitical games: If the U.S. treats stablecoins as substitutes for a digital dollar, it may squeeze the digital yuan's cross-border payment pilot, forcing Hong Kong's 'ASPIRe roadmap' to enhance tax incentives and other policies.

Regardless of the outcome, this summit marks a historic moment, signifying a key step for the crypto industry from the 'wild west' era towards 'institutionalization.'

However, in the short term, focus on sentiment, in the medium term, on policy, and in the long term, on technology. Regardless of the outcome, remember two points:

Policymakers will always prioritize their own interests over the wealth freedom of retail investors.

The market always overreacts; between FOMO and FUD, only the calm will survive.

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