PhyrexNi
--
Let me share my personal view on the market, which is not investment advice.
Currently, the market is either controlled by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or swayed by Trump's carrot and stick approach. There are times when both bulls and bears call each other fools; clearly, tariffs seem to be on the rise, leading to a significant drop in market sentiment, and then Trump's carrot appears.
Clearly, there are signs of the Russia-Ukraine war coming to a halt, and the market shows signs of recovery, but at this moment, Trump's stick makes an appearance. Overall, the sentiment among American investors in both the stock market and cryptocurrencies is not good, and that is a fact.
The main reason for the rebound of $BTC is still due to the cryptocurrency summit held by Trump at the White House, which will take place from 2:30 AM to 6:30 AM Beijing time on March 8. It should be divided into two sessions; one is a seminar with about 20 people, including Michael from $MSTR and Brian from $COIN, among a few other industry figures, as well as some government officials from the White House.
After the seminar, there will be a public summit, but it is currently unclear whether Trump will announce part of the Bitcoin strategic reserve details at the seminar or the summit. This is what investors are looking forward to, but don’t expect too much. Trump's original statement at the 2024 Consensus Conference was:
"The United States will no longer sell any $BTC and will use these BTC as a strategic reserve."
So in reality, Trump's original intention is not to buy BTC, but not to sell it. This is the most likely scenario. If there is a genuine opportunity to buy, it may come from the sovereign wealth fund mentioned last month, which is funded by tax revenues. Using this fund to buy a portion is not impossible, but the total amount is unlikely to be large. Therefore, the impact on sentiment may be limited.
What really can drive some liquidity still depends on tariffs, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, the development of Ukraine's rare earth minerals, and the macro data from the United States. This data will be more important and have a longer impact. So if there is a direction to follow, it will definitely come through macro-political conditions.
Until clear data, such as the dot plot, is available, both bullish and bearish directions are possible. Betting on a single direction carries greater risks. If there are truly experts who can make money in repeated fluctuations, that is really impressive. If you don't have that ability, it might not be wrong to wait and see during this period.
Here are some data points to pay attention to:
1. Ukraine and the U.S. signing a rare earth mineral development agreement, seen as a condition for the end of the war.
2. Trump weakening, slowing down, or abandoning tariff policies against Canada and Mexico.
3. The Federal Reserve's dot plot and Powell's speech on March 20; the macro data before this is actually aimed at serving the dot plot.
That’s all; I don’t know if there’s anything else to add.
PS: I am optimistic about Q1 purely as a personal action; I have explained the logic, but the risks are not nonexistent, so I do not recommend blindly betting. It’s best to have enough understanding yourself, especially now, as both bulls and bears may be in one person's hands, or mouth. The risks are still quite significant.
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
Currently, the market is either controlled by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or swayed by Trump's carrot and stick approach. There are times when both bulls and bears call each other fools; clearly, tariffs seem to be on the rise, leading to a significant drop in market sentiment, and then Trump's carrot appears.
Clearly, there are signs of the Russia-Ukraine war coming to a halt, and the market shows signs of recovery, but at this moment, Trump's stick makes an appearance. Overall, the sentiment among American investors in both the stock market and cryptocurrencies is not good, and that is a fact.
The main reason for the rebound of $BTC is still due to the cryptocurrency summit held by Trump at the White House, which will take place from 2:30 AM to 6:30 AM Beijing time on March 8. It should be divided into two sessions; one is a seminar with about 20 people, including Michael from $MSTR and Brian from $COIN, among a few other industry figures, as well as some government officials from the White House.
After the seminar, there will be a public summit, but it is currently unclear whether Trump will announce part of the Bitcoin strategic reserve details at the seminar or the summit. This is what investors are looking forward to, but don’t expect too much. Trump's original statement at the 2024 Consensus Conference was:
"The United States will no longer sell any $BTC and will use these BTC as a strategic reserve."
So in reality, Trump's original intention is not to buy BTC, but not to sell it. This is the most likely scenario. If there is a genuine opportunity to buy, it may come from the sovereign wealth fund mentioned last month, which is funded by tax revenues. Using this fund to buy a portion is not impossible, but the total amount is unlikely to be large. Therefore, the impact on sentiment may be limited.
What really can drive some liquidity still depends on tariffs, the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, the development of Ukraine's rare earth minerals, and the macro data from the United States. This data will be more important and have a longer impact. So if there is a direction to follow, it will definitely come through macro-political conditions.
Until clear data, such as the dot plot, is available, both bullish and bearish directions are possible. Betting on a single direction carries greater risks. If there are truly experts who can make money in repeated fluctuations, that is really impressive. If you don't have that ability, it might not be wrong to wait and see during this period.
Here are some data points to pay attention to:
1. Ukraine and the U.S. signing a rare earth mineral development agreement, seen as a condition for the end of the war.
2. Trump weakening, slowing down, or abandoning tariff policies against Canada and Mexico.
3. The Federal Reserve's dot plot and Powell's speech on March 20; the macro data before this is actually aimed at serving the dot plot.
That’s all; I don’t know if there’s anything else to add.
PS: I am optimistic about Q1 purely as a personal action; I have explained the logic, but the risks are not nonexistent, so I do not recommend blindly betting. It’s best to have enough understanding yourself, especially now, as both bulls and bears may be in one person's hands, or mouth. The risks are still quite significant.
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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