Trump's strategic reserve will push XRP, SOL, and ADA to new highs; the bull market is locked in. But the truth is, retail investor enthusiasm masks the uncertainties of policy details and potential regulatory risks.
- 48 hours after Trump's speech, large on-chain transfers of BTC (>1000 BTC) decreased by 25%, while SOL transfers surged by 40%, showing clear whale differentiation.
- 💰[XRP holding concentration]💰 rises to 70%, hidden selling pressure risk.
- SOL open interest surged by 30%, funding rate soared to 0.05%, long leverage is approaching the tipping point.
- After the speech, the popularity index on platform X reached 95, but the bullish ratio dropped from 75% to 58%, showing initial signs of retail investor confidence wavering.
- If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points on March 5, and the details of the strategic reserve are finalized, BTC may surge to 100,000, and SOL may double.
- Strategy: Build positions gradually with light positions, set take-profit at key resistance levels.
- If CPI exceeds 3.5% and the SEC rejects the reserve plan, the three coins may plummet to pre-speech levels.
- Strategy: VAR model predicts worst-case drawdown 💰[-35%]💰, wait and see or short.
- Slow policy implementation, market sentiment cooling, BTC oscillating in the 90,000-100,000 range.
- Strategy: Short-term swings, lock in 5%-10% profit and exit.
- Data from platform X shows that 70% of KOLs are collectively bullish after the speech, historical patterns indicate an over 80% probability of a pullback within 30 days.
- If the reserve plan enforces KYC/AML, projects like XRP will lose community support, and long-term value will be overestimated.
This week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (March 5) and CPI data (March 6) will amplify market volatility. If inflation exceeds expectations, the optimistic outlook for the strategic reserve may be offset by macro pressures, pay attention to the shift in derivatives funding rates.
Do you think Trump's strategic reserve is the last chance to get on board or a death charge?
- A. Sign of a bull market starting
- B. The market maker is harvesting retail investors
- C. Regulatory black swan is coming
In the worst-case scenario (VAR model), BTC, SOL, and others may experience a drawdown of up to 35%, please manage positions cautiously. This is not financial advice.
Is Trump's strategic reserve a true bull market signal, or just another harvesting scheme?
