The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of recovery following one of its steepest declines earlier this week. A major catalyst for this rebound has been a statement from the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, which suggests that former President Donald Trump may announce a rollback of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In response, Ethena ($ENA ) has experienced a shift into positive territory, recording notable gains as it approaches a significant token unlock event.

However, despite this temporary relief, ENA has seen a substantial 69% decline over the past 60 days, leading to a significant erosion of investor confidence.

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Unlocking 39% of Circulating Supply

A primary factor contributing to ENA's recent downturn is the anticipation surrounding a substantial token unlock event scheduled for today. According to data from Tokenomics, Ethena will conduct its first insider unlock, releasing approximately 2.07 billion ENA tokens—representing 39% of its circulating supply—valued at over $764 million.

The breakdown of the unlocked tokens is as follows:

Core Contributors: 1.13 billion ENA (~$471 million)

Investors: 937.5 million ENA (~$392 million)

Ecosystem Development: 7.93 million ENA (~$3.32 million)

This substantial influx of tokens has raised concerns regarding potential selling pressure. If large holders decide to liquidate their positions, it could exert additional downward pressure on ENA's price.

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Testing Critical Support Levels

From a technical perspective, Ethena (ENA) has experienced a downward trajectory since the beginning of 2025, following a rejection at its December high of $1.31. This bearish momentum has driven ENA down to its current price of $0.36, where the token is now testing a crucial support zone between $0.31 and $0.40, as indicated on the chart.

If ENA is able to maintain this support level, it could pave the way for a potential recovery rally. A successful rebound might allow the token to reclaim its 25-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A confirmed breakout above this level could signal a trend reversal, with the possibility of the price moving toward $0.80 and beyond.

Conversely, if ENA fails to hold this support zone, it could face further declines, with the next major support level around $0.23, marking the lower range of its previous trading structure.

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Outlook: Volatility Expected

With 39% of ENA’s circulating supply unlocking today, heightened volatility is anticipated in the short term. The ability of the market to absorb the increased supply without significant downward pressure will be a key factor in determining price stability.

Investors will closely monitor ENA’s performance within the critical $0.31–$0.40 support zone, as well as the broader market recovery efforts, to assess whether additional support can be provided. The coming days will likely be pivotal in shaping ENA's short-term trajectory.

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