The impact of #特朗普国会演讲 on the cryptocurrency sector is both beneficial and harmful, in my personal analysis.

1. Sources of market optimism

1. Policy endorsement effect

As the first major economy to include cryptocurrency in its strategic reserves, the United States may trigger global sovereign funds' demand for BTC allocation. According to Bitwise research, sovereign fund exposure to crypto is currently less than 0.1%, and a policy shift could bring in hundreds of billions of dollars in incremental funds.

2. Expectations for infrastructure upgrades

Referencing the market response after the OCC allowed banks to custody crypto assets in 2020, the national reserve plan may force:

- A federal-level digital asset custody system

- A clearing and settlement system that meets FINRA standards

- Interoperability protocols between central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and private chains

3. Geopolitical financial games

The U.S. strategic reserves may include:

- Sanction-resistant privacy coin reserves (e.g., XMR)

- A stablecoin pool for cross-border settlements

- A defensive asset portfolio against the digital yuan

2. Core contradictions of market concerns

1. Regulatory arbitrage risk

Government large-scale holdings may distort market pricing mechanisms, such as:

- Insider trading suspicions arising from monitoring wallet movements through on-chain analysis tools

- Policy uncertainty due to the lack of transparent rules governing the increase or decrease of strategic reserves

2. Technical sovereignty conflict

National control over key crypto assets fundamentally conflicts with the decentralized ethos of Web3:

- May forcibly require open-source protocols to add regulatory interfaces (e.g., the Tornado Cash incident)

- The geographic centralization of mining pools/nodes poses a risk of 51% attacks

3. Tax policy arbitrage opportunities

Strategic reserves may be accompanied by:

- Amending IRC Section 1031 to allow like-kind exchanges of crypto assets

- Delaying the implementation of taxes (similar to tax deferral treatment for DeFi lending)

- But may simultaneously strengthen on-chain transaction tax monitoring (IRS Form 1040 Schedule D amendments)