Let's look at the previous post in a little more detail
In March 2023, the Fed injected $2.5 trillion through the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) to stabilize after SVB (the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank). Reserves were at their peak (8.3 trillion in 2022) but by 2025 they had fallen to $6.5 trillion (according to FRED).
Inflation is currently 3% (officially according to the latest data with a forecast of up to 3.2%) with the growth of the energy crisis and Trump's policy. Printing money is not allowed - it will undermine prices even more.
The repo (overnight rate) fell to 0% in 2008 and 2020, which signaled QE (Quantitative Easing). Now it is about 4.5% - the Fed is keeping a tight line.
QE and QU - what is it?
QE (Quantitative Easing)
This is when the Fed buys government bonds and other assets, injecting money into the economy. The goal is to lower rates, increase liquidity, and stimulate growth. In 2008-2014 and 2020-2021, QE pumped up crypto: investors took risks (BTC, alts) while rates were 0%.
QU (Quantitative Tightening)
The reverse process: the Fed sells assets or lets reserves expire, removing money from the system. This raises rates and squeezes liquidity. Since June 2022, the Fed has been QUing (balance sheet reduction by $95 billion/month), and this continues in 2025 (FOMC, February 2025).
What do we conclude from this - altcoins suffer until there is a new easing.
Another reason to look at this is memecoins, if in the last cycle projects (alts) were launched with specific purposes or were aimed at solving some problems, in this cycle the market was filled with memecoins.
In 2025, memecoins are 50%+ of new tokens (24k coins vs. 8k in 2021, CoinMarketCap). Example: WIF (+2027% in 2024), but 70% of memecoins are scams or dumps (Rug Pulls at $200M+ in 2024, Dune Analytics) this factor partially undermines confidence in the cryptocurrency.
Another important factor is AI. In 2024, investments in AI grew to $300 billion (CB Insights), against $50 billion in crypto. Nvidia (chips) and energy companies (for data centers) are pulling capital.
Conclusion: money is distributed against the background of the above events.
Altseason will come, we'll talk about coins later.
