In the early hours of March 2, Trump posted on his social platform Truth Social, announcing that the U.S. would advance the strategic reserve of crypto assets like BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA to ensure that the U.S. becomes the world's crypto capital.

Once the news broke, market sentiment was instantly ignited, with BTC and ETH rising directly by over 10%, SOL soaring by 20%, ADA skyrocketing by 80% in an hour, and XRP even momentarily pushing its FDV market cap over ETH! The entire market began to warm up, and some altcoins followed suit. Although the market faced a correction the next day, the adrenaline shot Trump gave the crypto market remains effective.

This makes me sigh: all actions seem to depend on Trump’s whims.

So the question arises: after Trump's call, what will the market do next? Is a bull market really on the way? Or is it just another round of 'buy the expectation and sell the facts'? How should we operate in this market? Don't worry, today Old K will take you deep into the analysis.


Like it before watching, and good fortune will follow! This video is purely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.

Current Market Status: The Carnival After the Stimulant.

Let's talk about the current market sentiment. The image that pops into my mind is this:

A few days ago, the crypto market was like a dying patient, and Trump 'pushed' a shot of adrenaline, directly moving it from the ICU to the nightclub, dancing more joyfully than anyone else. That's the crypto world on March 3—one word from Trump pulled the market from 'barely alive' to 'fully energized and partying.' Why is it so exaggerated? Because he painted a big picture—'advancing the cryptocurrency strategic reserve.' Moreover, this Friday, March 7, Eastern Time, the White House will hold its 'first cryptocurrency summit,' where Trump will personally give a speech. The accumulation of these expectations has injected a super strong stimulant into the market, directly reversing the 'everyone in fear' panic from the previous days.

However, we need to calm down and think about whether this rise is reliable.

I looked through the data and found that the rise on March 3 was almost entirely driven by Trump's post, that is, by policy expectations. As for new narrative stories or innovations? None at all. Recently, there have been people on social media promoting something called 'OdinFun,' claiming it has innovations; I won't comment on that. However, those playing short-term and PvP might as well play it like they would with a meme coin.

On the macroeconomic front? There's no new stimulus; the previous expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have also been put on hold. So, today’s excitement is basically just the 'Trump effect' holding up the scene.

Historical Review: The Trump Effect.

Speaking of the Trump effect, we need to review last year's events. In 2024, Bitcoin could climb from the bottom to $100,000, driven by two major factors: the frenzy around ETFs and the expectation of the 'crypto-friendly president' Trump being elected. When he won, the market exploded, with Bitcoin soaring past $74,000 overnight, and it even broke the $100,000 mark afterward. At that time, everyone thought Trump was the 'savior' of the crypto world, after all, he had promised to support crypto during his campaign and transform the U.S. into the 'global crypto capital.'

Now that he is in office, it seems he is slowly delivering on his campaign promises. If over the next few months the Trump administration can ramp up policy efforts, such as truly implementing this 'strategic reserve' or introducing more favorable measures, it could indeed extend the timeline and expectations for this bull market. For instance, where everyone thought the 'bull market would end in October,' it might now stretch to the end of the year or even longer. You see, he also mentioned 'other valuable cryptocurrencies' in his post, which leaves room for imagination regarding altcoins.

Rational analysis: don't let Trump cloud your judgment.

At this point, some brothers might not be able to hold back: 'The president himself is calling for action, what are we waiting for? Let's go all in!' But hold on, we need to calmly analyze the hidden dangers and risks of this market wave.

Although the market has gotten hyped up again in the short term, we still need to keep an eye on the three influencing factors we discussed earlier—narrative, economy, policy. Trump's loud call today indeed provided a strong upward momentum for the market on a policy level, but what about the narrative and economy? They remain the same, with no new developments.

Insufficient Narrative: Lacking True Market Ignition Points.

In terms of narrative, the crypto world still lacks a big story that can ignite the entire scene, like the ICO boom in 2017 or the DeFi and NFT frenzy in 2020-2021. Every bull market has been accompanied by a brand new industry trend, but right now, apart from crazy meme coins, there hasn’t been a new super hot topic.

Moreover, the economic environment still has uncertainties.

Don't forget, the U.S. rate cuts are also unclear, and on Thursday (March 7), non-farm payroll data and unemployment rates will be released, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement on March 19. If these data disappoint, market sentiment might flip again. The market sentiment could very likely 'dive off a high platform.' Additionally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and global economic uncertainties (like the U.S.-China trade war, geopolitical risks) could all become variables for the crypto market.

Furthermore, Trump's call does not equal a guaranteed positive outcome.

Although Trump's statements sound quite radical, the specific details of the policy implementation remain vague. If his crypto strategic reserve plan is just a gimmick that ends up going nowhere, and the White House's crypto summit, while sounding grand, has no clear agenda or actionable items, who knows? What if Trump gives a speech full of empty rhetoric—will the market 'buy the expectation and sell the facts'? It's certainly possible. After his election last year, Bitcoin indeed surged, but there were also significant corrections afterward. So, don't just focus on Trump's 'calls' and get overly excited; you still need to manage your positions.

FOMO or calm down? My advice!

So, with the market so hyped, should we jump in for a gamble, or should we keep a calm mindset and watch? I have some advice for both types of investors; let’s have a chat and try to help both short-term and long-term players find their own rhythm!

1. Short-term players: seize the opportunity but don't be reckless!

If you are a short-term trader who enjoys quick in-and-out trades, then Trump’s recent 'call' has indeed given you a nice gift. The heat from this policy expectation, combined with pre-summit speculation, suggests the market likely still has some play left in the short term. BTC may surge again, and altcoins like ADA and SOL that were mentioned are likely to continue riding the wave.

However, brothers, let’s not be too hasty! I've seen too many people get overly excited and go all in, only for the market to correct, and their accounts go 'kaput.' My advice is to manage your positions well; for instance, use 20%-30% of your total capital to play around, and aim for short-term gains with light positions. Don't forget to set stop losses—don't be laughing when it goes up and crying when it goes down. After all, Trump’s voice might be loud, but the market is unpredictable. Once the summit ends this Friday, if there are no substantial benefits, the market could turn from bullish to bearish, and the risk of a correction is significant.

2. Long-term investors: hold onto BTC!

If, like me, you are a long-term holder, then my advice boils down to three words: don't mess around! No matter how great Trump's call is, and how high the market goes, the most important thing for long-term investors is still to hold onto their BTC. Why? Because no matter how the market fluctuates, Bitcoin remains the 'big brother' of the crypto market, and its position cannot be shaken in the short term.

Look, over the past decade, BTC has risen from a few cents to $100,000, experiencing countless bull and bear cycles along the way. How many altcoins can withstand a round of this? Policies, economics, narratives—these factors can create short-term waves, but over the long term, Bitcoin's value has never been shaken.

So, long-term players should just hold onto their BTC.

A final reminder: the market is unpredictable; beware of risks.

Whether you're a short-term or long-term player, there's one thing I have to keep repeating: the market is unpredictable! Trump can call for a rise today, and tomorrow he might post some mysterious tweet that crashes the market. We small traders can only manage our positions well and not let FOMO emotions lead us around. Don't be greedy when it goes up; don't panic when it goes down. As long as you have food in hand, your heart won't panic—this is the survival strategy in the crypto space!

That's all for today! Do you think Trump can really bring the bull market back, or is it just another trick? Feel free to leave your comments.