Bitcoin will be worth nothing in ten years."
Eugene F. Fama, the "father of modern finance," revolutionized the world of money with his efficient market hypothesis. He received the Nobel Prize in 2013 for his work - today, he casts his scientific gaze on Bitcoin. His judgment is damning:
"Cryptocurrencies contradict all logic of monetary theory. They have no stable value; they are highly unpredictable. This kind of thing does not survive."
Reason 1: Bitcoin is not a currency - it is a speculative zombie.
Fama's central argument gets straight to the point: Bitcoin is useless. No serious company accepts it on a large scale, no government guarantees its value. While the euro is backed by taxes and laws, Bitcoin hangs by a thread, that of mass psychology.
"It is only digital if it has a purpose. Without a purpose, it is just air."
And air, according to Fama, eventually volatilizes.
Reason 2: Volatility - the final blow for Bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin jumps like a drunken monkey on a trampoline made of oil barrels. Last week, it was still at $109,000; today it is barely at $97,000. For Fama, this is proof that anyone paying with Bitcoin is a gambler, not a businessman.
"A currency that fluctuates by 10% a day destroys all planning security. This is not money - it is gambling."
Reason 3: The paradox of blockchain.
Fama calculates: A global financial world based on blockchain would require unimaginable computing power - an energy waste that no state would tolerate in the long term. Moreover, this technique would be completely unnecessary:
"We already have efficient payment systems. Bitcoin solves no problems - it IS the problem."
Fama's prediction: "In ten years, we will laugh at Bitcoin."
The 85-year-old man remains firm: by 2035 at the latest, Bitcoin will have faded into digital oblivion. Its collapse could push the cryptocurrency sector into the arms of the state - but Fama warns:
"Bitcoin and traditional finance should not be mixed. If the cryptocurrency market collapses, there should be no bailout. Let them go beg."
Ironically, the interdependence between Wall Street and crypto continues to grow: ETFs on Bitcoin, relaxed SEC rules, wealth managers like BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) suddenly storing "digital gold." But Fama remains impassive in the face of this:
"All bubbles burst. Bitcoin is no exception."
Fama's creed: the man who decoded the stock market.
Fama is not a charlatan. The work of his life marks every finance course: in the 1960s, he proved that stock prices were unpredictable in the short term - which still forces investors today to bet on long-term strategies and diversification.
His verdict against Bitcoin is therefore not an intuition, but the logical consequence of 55 years of cutting-edge research. Ignoring it is to ignore the laws of economics.
The three sins that will kill Bitcoin.
Inutility: without daily utility, it remains a speculative vehicle - and it eventually peters out.
Energy devourer: mining consumes more electricity than the Netherlands - an explosive issue in climate policy.
Wave of regulation: states like China or the EU will not tolerate cryptocurrency chaos indefinitely.
