On March 4th, Crypto Headlines:
1. $BTC fell again after rebounding, returning to the starting position of the rebound at 85,000; relying on verbal support is still insufficient. Even Trump, the bottom must be ground out with real money.
Metaphysical theory: What is lacking must be supplemented.
In the recent drop, CME BTC futures filled two gaps, while also creating the largest historical gap from $85,720 to $93,050, which was filled again last night.
Additionally, there is a historical gap between $77,930 and $78,675, which has been partially filled in the recent drop but not completely.
Currently, both URPD and CME have a gap around $77,000; historically, URPD gaps have never gone unfilled.
The main view of the fund: In extreme cases, it may touch the $60,000s, but $75,000 is enough to make a strong bottom.
2. $BTC has become tied to the U.S. macroeconomy and is increasingly correlated with U.S. stocks.
$BTC is still seen as a risk asset; when market liquidity is poor, the crypto market is the first to suffer.
This week and next week, there will be a lot of macro data released, all of which will impact crypto assets.
Analyst: Bitcoin has turned bearish, and market sentiment is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors.
3. Trump has become the most uncertain factor in this round of the market, especially regarding tariff policy; he will continue to push for a trade war.
Trump signed a tariff agreement with China, raising the original 10% import tariff to 20%, and a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada is about to take effect.
Trump: I will impose tariffs on countries that devalue their currencies as a form of sanction.
4. This week's macro data:
On March 6th at 21:30, the U.S. released: Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 1st.
On March 3rd at 21:30, the U.S. released: February unemployment rate, February seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll.
On March 7th, President Trump hosted a cryptocurrency summit at the White House.
On March 7th, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke at the 2025 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum.
5. The Swiss National Bank has explicitly rejected the inclusion of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, citing concerns over the stability of this cryptocurrency. This decision dealt a significant blow to Bitcoin's hopes of becoming a recognized reserve asset.
Proposals from various U.S. states to include Bitcoin as a reserve asset have been rejected in two states, citing excessive price volatility and instability.
The 20 or so states proposing Bitcoin reserves are all from the Republican camp. Many Republican lawmakers hold crypto assets themselves but still vote against it, citing the volatility of cryptocurrency prices; using a state's assets for betting is unacceptable.
6. This week, MicroStrategy has interrupted the process of buying $BTC again. The $2 billion that MicroStrategy just raised has all been used to buy Bitcoin.
The crypto market plummeted, causing MicroStrategy's stock to fall as well, increasing financing difficulties; the landlord's house is out of grain.
Some are worried: MicroStrategy may be forced to sell Bitcoin, leading to a chain liquidation and causing a spiral decline in Bitcoin.
Such a thing is unlikely to happen for two reasons: first, MicroStrategy's debt is very low, and the maturity date of the financing bond is 2028, passing through a bull-bear cycle has enough time.
Secondly, the founder holds more than 40% of the voting rights, effectively giving him veto power; he has just stated: he would rather sell a kidney than sell Bitcoin.
7. Bernstein: If Trump's cryptocurrency reserve plan is approved by Congress, funding could come from the redistribution of gold reserves or newly issued government bonds.
Involving the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, requires Congress to pass a specific bill. The government is also unlikely to issue reserves without involving the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
Even if cryptocurrency reserves are indeed approved by Congress, purchases will not be immediate, involving various legislations with a long cycle.
8. Well-known streamer Amouranth reported being robbed at gunpoint and was asked for cryptocurrency. However, she led the robber to another part of the house, fired three shots, and the robber then fled.
Reason for being robbed: In November 2024, she posted a screenshot of her Coinbase account showing she held about 211 Bitcoins, valued at 20 million dollars at the time.
9. Market news: NYSE has submitted a 19b-4 application file for the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF.
10. Goldman Sachs CEO: The likelihood of a U.S. economic recession is very low.
It's getting scarier, starting to think about an economic recession.
11. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is weakening again, nearing the lowest level since the bull peak in 2021.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen by 5.85% in the last 24 hours, currently reported at 0.02496, close to the lowest point of 0.02337 since April 2021.