**Cryptocurrency Market Rebound: Bottom Fishing or Wait and See? Key Strategies Overview**
After months of decline, the cryptocurrency market has recently rebounded strongly, with BTC returning to $67,000 and ETH breaking above $3,200, leading to improved market sentiment. Is this a trend reversal or a temporary bounce? We analyze it from three major dimensions:
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### **Rebound Drivers: Technical Recovery and Halving Expectations**
1. **Oversold Rebound**: BTC has pulled back over 20% from its peak, and after a large-scale liquidation of leveraged positions, short covering and bottom-fishing funds have propelled the recovery, confirming the $60,000 support level as effective.
2. **Halving Narrative**: The countdown to Bitcoin halving (block rewards decreasing to 3.125 BTC) suggests, based on historical cycles, that a bull market may begin within a year after halving, coupled with continuous net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs (over $800 million in a single week), alleviating concerns over selling pressure.
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### **Potential Risks: Vulnerabilities Remain**
1. **Macroeconomic Pressure**: The Federal Reserve's “higher rates for longer” policy suppresses risk assets, U.S. treasury yields soar, and geopolitical conflicts and regulatory uncertainties (such as SEC enforcement) could trigger black swan events.
2. **Funding Divergence**: Long-term holders (LTH) are accelerating their sale of BTC (over 50,000 coins in a single week), and the reserve of stablecoins on exchanges has not significantly rebounded, raising doubts about the inflow of incremental funds.
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### **Operational Strategies: How Three Types of Investors Should Respond**
1. **Long-term Positioning**:
- Buy in batches when there is a pullback (e.g., BTC $61,000-$63,000, ETH $2,800-$3,000), primarily allocate to BTC and ETH, supplemented by high-growth sectors like AI and RWA.
2. **Mid-term Wait and See**:
- Wait for BTC to break above the previous high of $73,000 to confirm the trend, closely monitor ETF fund flows and institutional holding data.
3. **Short-term Caution**:
- Avoid high leverage, pay attention to the rebound of altcoins (e.g., Meme, DePIN), and set stop-loss lines (e.g., exit if it falls below the 10-day moving average).
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**Summary**: The rebound provides trading opportunities, but a trend reversal requires more signals (such as a shift from the Federal Reserve and continuous ETF capital absorption). Investors should act according to their risk preferences, avoid emotional trading, and maintain flexibility during the halving cycle, which is more important than making bets.
*Risk Warning: The market is highly volatile, and the above does not constitute investment advice.*