The market is eagerly anticipating the arrival of altcoin season, but most people do not know when it will come, or by the time they realize it, the strong altcoins may have already surged several times. Therefore, I have compiled some data; altcoin season usually occurs under the following conditions:
1. Bitcoin $BTC price stabilizes or starts to pull back — When BTC rises sharply and enters a consolidation or slight pullback phase, funds will seek higher yield opportunities, flowing into the altcoin market.
2. Bitcoin market share (BTC Dominance) declines — If BTC Dominance continues to fall, it indicates that market funds are beginning to shift towards other tokens, and altcoin season may be approaching.
3. Ethereum $ETH mainstream altcoins lead the rally — Ethereum is usually the 'pioneer' of altcoin season. If ETH's gains start to surpass BTC and drive #SOL, #BNB, #ADA, and other mainstream altcoins, it indicates that market interest in altcoins is heating up.
4. Market sentiment is high, retail funds are entering — When the market experiences FOMO (fear of missing out), especially with a large influx of new funds, altcoins often see an explosive rally.
What could be the potential timing for altcoin season in 2025?
Currently, Bitcoin is still the focus of the market, having just surpassed 86K. Market funds are still concentrated in stable assets like BTC and BNB. However, if BTC enters a phase of oscillation or pullback in the coming weeks, and BTC Dominance falls below 45% (currently around 50%), altcoin season may begin.
Key signals:
✅ BTC stabilizes at a high level or experiences a slight pullback (e.g., oscillating between 80K-90K)
✅ ETH/BTC trading pair starts to rise (indicating ETH is outperforming BTC)
✅ BTC Dominance drops below 45% (indicating that market funds are flowing into altcoins)
✅ Mainstream altcoins (SOL, BNB, ADA) start to lead the rally
✅ The market shows significant FOMO sentiment, with active ecosystems like NFT and DeFi
If BTC enters a period of oscillation in March-April, and ETH breaks through $2,500-$3,000, we may welcome spring altcoin season.
If BTC continues to rise and breaks through 100K, altcoin season may be delayed until BTC completes a new round of adjustments.
