The K-line chart of Bitcoin conveys a clear signal: in the high zone, the multiple long upper shadows indicate that the price encountered strong selling pressure after rising. Continuous bullish candles pushed the price to high levels, but the subsequent doji and bearish candles indicate that profit-taking sentiment is gradually accumulating. This phenomenon is like the hustle and bustle we see in a lively market, which often leads to a calm observation afterward.
I. Then let's look at what the technical indicators reflect.
1. MACD Signal:
We have observed that the DIF line in MACD has begun to gradually decline after hovering at high levels, and the MACD histogram has also shifted from significant expansion to contraction, indicating that high-level momentum is gradually waning. This change signifies that short-term strength is beginning to fade, and the risk of adjustment is quietly approaching.
2. RSI Observation:
The RSI indicator has slowly fallen from the overbought zone around 85 to about 65, reflecting a weakening of bullish strength. It's like after the excitement, everyone begins to calm down, and the market atmosphere is gradually stabilizing, but behind it still lurks the possibility of adjustment.
3. EMA Moving Average Trends:
The current price is below the short-term EMA7 moving average and far from the 30-day and 120-day moving averages. Although the long-term trend remains strong, short-term momentum has clearly decreased, indicating that we need to be more cautious in short-term operations.
4. Trading Volume Trends and Market Sentiment
From February 18 to March 2, trading volume significantly increased, indicating a very high market participation level during the surge. However, after March 2, trading volume sharply decreased, showing an increased wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with uncertain direction for the future. This phenomenon reminds us: after the bustling high, there may likely be a period of adjustment.
II. What operational strategies and risk controls are there?
Based on the above analysis, we suggest considering the following operational strategies. You can flexibly adjust them according to your actual situation (for reference only):
Long Point One: $90,000
This position is not only a psychological barrier for integers but also close to previous low points, providing strong support.
Long Point Two: $89,250
If the price further declines and approaches the important EMA120 support line, consider gradually buying on dips.
Long Stop Loss Point: $88,500
If the price falls below this point after establishing a position, it is advisable to stop loss in time to avoid further losses.
——
Sell (Short) Point One: $95,000
There is usually strong resistance near previous high points, making it easier for bulls to take profits in this area.
Sell (Short) Point Two: $96,000
If the market breaks through previous high points, and bulls push higher again in the short term, consider gradually locking in profits.
Short Stop Loss Point: $96,500
Set a stop loss above Sell (Short) Point Two to guard against risks from sudden market reversals.
——
III. Outlook: Considerations
From previous technical signals, although the market shows a bullish trend in the short term, the selling pressure at high levels and shrinking trading volume have conveyed concerns about adjustment. The debate is: some remain optimistic, believing this is merely a temporary consolidation process, and the market's long-term strength is still intact; while many rational viewpoints point out that the current bullish-bearish divergence is significant, and high levels of overheating may trigger substantial adjustments. Market risks and opportunities coexist, so everyone must manage their positions well, strictly implement stop-losses, and avoid blindly chasing highs or averaging down due to impulsiveness. Remember, stable operation and risk control are the long-term survival strategies!
Final Summary:
Overall, although the market fundamentals remain solid, from the K-line, MACD, RSI, and trading volume perspectives, we have already observed signs of adjustment. Under the current high-level fluctuations, maintaining caution, reasonable layout, and strict stop-losses are very important. Everyone must pay more attention to changes in market sentiment during operations, combine technical indicators, and make rational decisions to stand firm in this volatile market.
(The strategy represents personal opinions for reference only. The market has risks, and a full investment may lead to a loss!) Finally, don’t forget to follow and like! May 2025 bring you and me abundant wealth!
