Weekend no-volume contract game, waiting for the opening to determine the direction

It's still a no-volume contract game market this weekend, currently$BTC Operating above the 85 support level

Doomsday vehicle$ETH On Sunday afternoon, pulling the market alone gave the illusion that 'it seems to be working again/the ether is hard again', and then, as expected, it immediately broke down, falling below 2200 again

If the price maintains in this range, it's highly likely that ETH will have an upward gap (closing price 2233 VS current price 2190); BTC will have a downward gap (closing price 84650 VS current price 85500)

The probability of BTC filling the gap is still very high, so the probability of a pullback to 84500 during Sunday night's trading to fill the gap is very large (and a 500-point drop is insignificant). If it doesn't fill immediately, if it goes up to 88-91 and then drops, it will likely also fill downwards.

The current consensus is to test the 88-90 range upwards, and then drop back to test the 80-82 range, or fall below new lows to test the 76 range. Considering the White House crypto meeting on March 7, I believe the next few days should trend upwards, with a spike during the meeting, then a drop.

80-90 is the consensus shorting range; if the negative rate is too high at that time, there may be a false breakout opportunity. We all know that BTC has been best at false breakouts since December (false new high on December 17, false new high on January 20). Therefore, a false breakout above 90k and testing upwards to 93 and above is very likely, but it will still drop after the false breakout.

So my current script is that BTC will rise from next Monday to Thursday (March 3 to March 6), a false breakout at the high on the 7th (after those shorting at 90k get stopped out, then entering short), and starting to drop from the 8th to mid to late March (new low or retesting the 80 range)

In the first half of next week, I will still maintain a full long position, but from Thursday onwards, or above 88000, I will need to consider retreating.

After retreating, it will be time to wait for shorting opportunities, but I will short above the consensus position of the smart money.

This is roughly the expected movement for March, but such predictions can only estimate a rough outline. We still need to observe while moving.

Based on the gap, I think this morning$BTC the possibility of a pullback to 84500 is not low; if it reaches there, I can take a long position, which is also based on the overall estimation for March. Upwards, I can aim for around 88-90 (ideal take profit point is 89800)

For altcoins, my upward rebound target is 255 and 260b, with an overall market cap growth of 5% - 8% (some altcoins may have 5-10%)