“CZ's new token rules will give rise to hundredfold coins, and YZi Labs' endorsement is just the icing on the cake.” But the truth is that behind the enthusiasm of retail investors, the harshness of the rules and the risks of market volatility are severely underestimated.
- 24 hours after CZ's tweet, large transfers on the BNB chain (>>500 BNB) surged by 40%, but the growth of active addresses was only 5%, indicating funds are concentrated in a few large whales.
- 💰[10% initial unlock funds]💰 If the flow is not transparently disclosed, the risk of the team running away cannot be ignored.
- BNB's open contracts rose 15% within 24 hours, and the funding rate climbed to 0.03%, indicating that bullish sentiment is overheated in the short term.
- CZ's tweet shares exceeded 100,000, and the heat index reached 89, but the bullish ratio in discussions about 'CZ tokens' plummeted to 55%, indicating increasing community divergence.
1. **Bull market scenario**
- If the first project to adopt CZ rules is approved by YZi Labs and listed on Binance, the token price may double within 30 days.
- Strategy: Pay attention to the dynamics of the first batch of application projects, try small positions, and set profit taking at double.
2. **Bear market scenario**
- If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates in the March 5 meeting, the crypto market will be under pressure, and token prices are unlikely to reach the 'double unlock' threshold, leading to a break in the project's capital chain.
- Strategy: VAR model predicts the worst pullback 💰[-25%]💰, mainly observe.
3. **Volatile market scenario**
- The performance of the first batch of projects is mediocre, retail investor confidence has been exhausted, and token prices have stabilized in the range of 0.8-1.2 times after the initial unlock.
- Strategy: Short-term arbitrage, lock in 10% profit and exit.
1. **70% KOL bullish = mid-term top signal**
- X platform data shows that within 72 hours after CZ's tweet, 70% of KOLs are promoting the 'new token revolution', and historical experience indicates this is a sign of short-term overheating.
2. **The compliance process may destroy the essence of decentralization**
- Although the CZ rules are innovative, if the SEC requires mandatory filing for projects, the transparency of the review will weaken community trust and contradict the original intention of cryptocurrency.
This week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision (March 5) and CPI data (March 6) will determine market risk appetite. If the CPI exceeds expectations (>3.5%), the financing difficulty of CZ's new regulation projects will surge, pay attention to the turning point of funding rates.
Do you think the new CZ token rules are the last chance to get on board or a death charge?
- A. Signs of a bull market starting
- B. The operators are harvesting retail investors.
- C. Regulatory black swan is coming
Readers who truly understand the 'double unlock' risk in the CZ rules, verify your cognitive level in the comments.
In the worst-case scenario (VAR model), the first batch of project tokens could see a pullback of up to 25%. Please carefully assess fund allocation. This is not financial advice.
Will the SEC allow CZ's token experiment to proceed or directly strangle it in the cradle?