Bitcoin and Nasdaq trend overlay chart!
Bitcoin and S&P 500 trend overlay chart!
Recently, there has been heated discussion about 'Is the bull market still on?', but the truth might overturn your perception! From the market performance after the 2024 halving, Bitcoin has completely bid farewell to the traditional bull-bear cycle of 'every four years', and is evolving towards a 'digital stock' form.
I. The end of the old cycle: Diminishing returns from the halving effect
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has halved its supply every four years, and each halving has led to a significant drop in selling pressure, driving prices to soar. However, now Bitcoin's average monthly output has dropped from 100 coins to 10 coins, with only a 5-coin/month reduction after halving, having minimal impact on market supply and demand. As mining giant Marathon disclosed: After the halving in 2024, its output will actually increase by 31%, confirming that 'mining rewards are no longer the core contradiction.'
II. The rise of a new order: Institutionalization reshapes market genetics
Bitcoin has transformed from an 'experimental fringe asset' into a 'digital gold ETF', with firms like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley holding over 1 million coins, accounting for 5% of the circulating supply. This change brings three significant qualitative shifts:
1. Price anchoring: The correlation with the S&P 500 index surged from 0.1 to 0.4, becoming a standard configuration for hedge funds;
2. Volatility dampening: When it breaks above $100,000 in 2024, trading volume will only slightly increase by 27% compared to previous highs, far below the peak of the 2021 bull market;
3. Risk transmission: A 1% rate cut by the Federal Reserve could lead to a 15-20% short-term increase in Bitcoin, creating a linkage with gold and US Treasuries.
III. The new normal in the future: The macro-driven 'monkey market' era
When Bitcoin becomes the digital version of an S&P 500 component, its price logic has fundamentally changed:
· Technical aspect: The MA200 moving average ($78,000) has become the new value center; if it holds, it is bullish up to $128,000, and if it falls below, it may retrace to $50,000;
· Funding situation: The reduction pressure from traditional funds like Grayscale is easing, and sovereign wealth funds (such as the Norwegian Oil Fund) are stepping in as the new main players;
· Policy aspect: The regulatory attitudes of China and the US are key variables; if the first Bitcoin futures ETF is listed in 2025, it may trigger a new round of institutional buying.
The conclusion is as follows; please don't shoot the messenger! This provides another perspective.
Stop getting tangled in the 'bull market bear market' labels; Bitcoin has entered a new era of 'digital stocks'. Investors are advised:
1. Replace speculative mindset with allocation thinking, referencing the equity-debt balance strategy of the S&P 500;
2. Pay attention to the battle for the MA200 moving average; if it falls below $75,000, consider building positions in batches, and be wary of retracement risks if it breaks above $100,000;
3. Keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and regulatory trends between China and the US; these two variables will determine the trend over the next three months.
