This article is a bit long, but it's all super valuable content. Those who can understand and implement it can avoid a lot of detours and greatly enhance their financial luck. Let's start below —
1. Don't easily follow big influencers to trade.
1. Big influencers are full-time; they can watch the sun rise at 4 AM while making trades and can escape immediately when the trend looks wrong. Ask yourself, can you respond in real time? The most likely scenario is — when you wake up in the morning and check the community and the plaza, you see a bunch of big influencers bragging about their wins, and if you impulsively enter the market, you just hit the peak of the wave, and you get stuck. Looking back at the big influencers, they have already taken profits and set stop-losses. Because your cost basis is different, the operational space is certainly different.
2. The market is ever-changing, and big influencers can only provide a reference area for making trades in advance, without giving specific points. Because when it reaches the position, one needs to watch for reversals to enter the market; placing orders in advance can easily get taken out by a spike (just look at the historical trends of BTC, which is still the least volatile coin). So what if you don't trade contracts and only trade spot? Let's continue to point 3.
3. Big influencers charge a commission fee, which means the more frequently you trade following them, the more they earn. This will lead to very active trading actions from big influencers, but in this market, the more you operate, the easier it is to make mistakes (even big influencers trading spot experience the same; a recent example is the pullback in January 2025, where even top influencers only managed to minimize losses). However, big influencers have plenty of bullets; they can frequently buy in at low prices to lower their cost basis, and once there's a rebound, they can run away with their capital back. Can you do that when you're stuck at the peak with exhausted resources? Real good opportunities may only appear once every few weeks or even months, but if big influencers operated at such a low frequency, no one would pay attention, and they wouldn’t earn commissions, so even if they are conscientious, they can't help it; this is the inevitable result driven by interests.
4. Big influencers can control their personas. You see that the comments on their articles are almost all praise; it's because negative reviews have been deleted. You see that their articles predict correctly; it's because wrong judgments have been quietly deleted. Many people can't even see the real trades of big influencers, listening to their sweet words and paying for VIP, isn't losing money self-inflicted? Blind followers following their trades can end up losing everything, and the big influencers bear no responsibility at all (after all, the money is yours, the hands are yours, adults take responsibility for themselves). Do you want to express doubts or even kind suggestions in the comments of a big influencer? They will directly block you. Want to file an official complaint? Completely useless (losing one big influencer means losing a lot of traffic; losing you is no pain, no gain). A friend in the plaza said it well — one of the cores of blockchain is to prevent tampering. When can the plaza prohibit users from deleting posts or blocking others at will, allowing all actions to leave traces and all truths to be revealed? Then it would really be interesting (though it's not realistic; at least I will not delete posts or block others, and have a clear conscience).
The first point has said a lot, not to completely deny the abilities or character of big influencers, but you need to realize that their opinions can only serve as references and cannot be used as trading instructions (there might be a big market in the spring of 2025, and even if I call a trade, it will only serve as a reference). Therefore, you must create your own trading strategy; it can be technical analysis, news-based, value investing, minute trading, monthly chart trading, or even dice trading; the key lies in the second major point below.
2. Strictly backtest your trading strategy.
Open the coin you are most familiar with using trading software, and use the K-line replay function to test your strategy step by step from the time this coin was listed. As you go through the tests, you will likely find that your original strategy is a pile of rubbish. That's okay; recognizing yourself is the first step to progress. Next is to continuously optimize your strategy, repeatedly using the K-line replay function to validate (do not deceive yourself with memory), and you will likely find that as the level increases, the probability of strategy errors decreases, and that’s when you can understand why good opportunities are so rare. When your win rate exceeds 60%, you can start executing under proper stop-loss conditions — note that each coin's market maker operates differently and requires separate reviews.
3. Execute, record, summarize, and evolve.
You're officially in the battlefield now, start with a small amount of capital to test the waters, strictly execute your strategy, and keep a record of every trade — what time, why you traded, where it went right, where it went wrong, and where to optimize next... As your win rate increases, you can gradually increase your bets, ultimately forming a positive cycle. Congratulations, you have surpassed 99% of users and big influencers. Moreover, in any investment market, you can live very well.
For friends who can read this whole thing, it's a fateful encounter. I wish you smooth sailing on your investment journey and ultimately reach the shores of success.
