Comprehensive analysis and conclusion: Will Bitcoin touch the weekly lower band again?
1. Core logic of technical analysis: Will historical patterns continue?
· Historical weekly pattern: The five historical weekly charts provided by users show that each time Bitcoin's price breaks through the middle band of the Bollinger Bands (20-week moving average), it has subsequently pulled back to the lower band. This pattern may stem from profit-taking sell pressure or trend-driven funds exiting after breaking the middle band.
· Current technical signals:
· Bollinger Bands pattern: The current middle band is at 91,766.94, the lower band is at 69,582.97, and the price (86,300) is below the middle band but not close to the lower band, indicating still some downside space.
· Volume and volatility: Recent volume shrinkage (24h trading volume 1.787 billion USDT), if panic sentiment triggers a sell-off, may lead to 'volume breakout'.
· MACD and RSI: If MACD forms a death cross and RSI (current value 47.67) has not entered the oversold zone (<30), pullback pressure remains; however, if RSI quickly hits the bottom, a rebound may occur earlier.
· KDJ signal: If the J value of KDJ drops below 20, it will strengthen the oversold signal, but must be observed in conjunction with price momentum.
2. Impact of macro events: Trump conference and market panic
· Trump Cryptocurrency Conference (March 7):
· Potential favorable news: If Trump expresses support for cryptocurrency regulation or promotes policy easing, it may boost market confidence in the short term and delay declines.
· Risk point: If the conference does not result in substantial policies, the market may accelerate its pullback due to 'good news fully priced in'.
· Market panic factors:
· Geopolitical conflicts: The Russia-Ukraine war and escalating Middle East tensions may trigger risk-averse sentiment, redirecting funds to gold or USD and suppressing Bitcoin.
· Regulatory risk: The tightening scrutiny of cryptocurrency ETFs or exchanges by the U.S. SEC could lead to sell-offs.
3. Key indicator verification: Current versus historical differences
· Dynamics of the Bollinger Bands lower band: The current lower band (69,582) is higher than historical lows (like 52,550); if volatility does not significantly increase, a direct 'pin' to the lower band would require a drop of about 20%, needing macro negative news to accompany.
· On-chain data supporting evidence:
· Behavior of long-term holders: If large amounts of BTC are transferred to exchanges on-chain (as per Glassnode data), it suggests increased selling pressure.
· Miner position changes: Miners hoarding or selling coins will affect short-term liquidity (data not provided by the user, additional data support needed).
4. Probability assessment and strategy suggestions
· Probability of touching the lower band: 60%
· Supporting factors: historical patterns, panic sentiment, technical pullback demand.
· Suppressing factors: Potential favorable news from Trump conference, RSI not oversold, higher position of the lower band.
· Operational suggestions:
· Short-term traders: Can short in batches as the price rebounds near the middle band (91,766), targeting the lower band at 69,500, with a stop-loss set 3% above the middle band.
· Long-term investors: If the price touches the lower band and RSI <30, positions can be built gradually, with a stop-loss set 5% below the lower band.
· Hedging strategy: Buy put options or hold stablecoins for hedging until macro events become clearer.
5. Risk warnings
· False breakout risk: If the price briefly touches the lower band and quickly rebounds (like in March 2023), it may form a 'trap for shorts'.
· Liquidity shock: The Trump conference or geopolitical conflicts may trigger sudden spikes/drops, requiring strict position management.
Conclusion
Combining technical and macro factors, Bitcoin has a high probability (60%) of pulling back to the Bollinger Bands lower band (around 69,500) in the short term (1-2 weeks), but caution is needed for the risk of favorable news from the Trump conference or a reversal in market sentiment. Users are advised to closely monitor the results of the March 7 conference and changes in RSI and trading volume. If a critical support level (like 80,000) is broken, testing the lower band will accelerate.