I. Scenario-Based Survival: A New Paradigm of Competition in the Digital Economy Era.
Driven by the dual forces of the Internet of Everything (IoE) and Web 3.0, the battlefield of commercial competition is shifting from traditional industry boundaries to 'scenario ecological networks'. The logic of consumer decision-making has fundamentally changed: immediate scenario needs (material + spiritual) and latent pain points have become core driving factors for purchases. This transformation disrupts the original value creation model of enterprises.
Traditional model: Based on industry division, focusing on explicit needs, capturing market share through large-scale production (e.g., home appliances, automobile manufacturing).
Scenario model: Using the physical/digital scenario where the user is located as an entry point, uncovering potential needs through data insight, and providing cross-industry integrated solutions (e.g., Xiaomi smart home covering all family scenarios, Didi integrating travel + local services).
Case comparison: Shared bicycles are not an extension of the bicycle industry, but rather focus on the 'last mile travel scenario' by integrating GPS positioning, mobile payment, and IoT technology to reconstruct the short-distance travel ecosystem. This scenario-driven innovation directly spawns a market worth hundreds of billions.
II. Scenario Five Forces Model: The Technological-Driven Engine for Business Reconstruction.
(In the era of scenarios) the proposed 'five forces'—big data, mobile devices, social media, sensors, and positioning systems—have evolved into the underlying infrastructure of the scenario economy.
Data fusion layer.
Sensor networks collect environmental data (temperature, humidity, crowd density, etc.) in real-time, and positioning systems mark spatial coordinates, forming dynamic scenario digital twins.
Enterprise case: Starbucks uses in-store sensors to monitor customer stay hotspots, optimizing shelf layout and product recommendations.
Connection interaction layer.
Mobile devices become scenario entry points, social media builds relationship chain dissemination, and user behavior data trains AI models in reverse.
Technological extension: AR/VR technology is creating 'mixed reality scenarios', such as IKEA's app feature for virtual furniture placement.
Value transformation layer.
Five forces collaboratively build a 'scenario-demand-service' closed loop, allowing enterprises to precisely match long-tail needs (e.g., Meituan pushing 'hot pot delivery' services on rainy days based on LBS).
Data verification: Accenture research shows that companies adopting scenario-based operations see a 40% increase in customer conversion rates and a threefold increase in customer lifetime value (LTV).
III. Full Scenario Strategy: An Inevitable Path for Enterprise Digital Transformation.
1. Scenario networking: Ecological interpretation of Metcalfe's Law.
When enterprises connect scenario nodes (users, devices, services), the network value follows V=K×N² (where K is the scenario coupling coefficient).
Practical path:
Horizontal expansion: Covering more scenario types (e.g., Alipay expanding from payment to healthcare and government services).
Vertical deepening: Increasing the data granularity of single scenarios (e.g., Tesla's in-car system records driver habits to build personalized service models).
2. Full Scenario Layout Methodology.
Hierarchical implementation strategy typical tools hardware layer development scenario-based smart terminal IoT devices, wearable hardware software layer building scenario data middle platform AI algorithm engine, user behavior analysis platform service layer providing scenario subscription service SaaS solutions, API economy ecological layer building open scenario platform blockchain cross-chain protocol, distributed identity system.
Benchmark case:
Huawei HarmonyOS: Achieving seamless switching across multiple scenarios for mobile phones, cars, and home appliances through distributed technology, with the number of ecosystem devices exceeding 700 million in 2023.
Amazon Sidewalk: Utilizing the 900MHz band to connect devices in and around homes, building a community-level IoT network.
IV. Blockchain: Infrastructure of scenario trust and value collaboration network.
Blockchain technology injects three core capabilities into the scenario economy.
Trusted data rights confirmation.
Implementing 'usable but invisible' scenario data through zero-knowledge proof (ZKP), ensuring user privacy while releasing commercial value (e.g., anonymous medical record analysis in healthcare scenarios).
Value circulation protocol.
Smart contracts automatically execute scenario rules, for example:
In the autonomous driving scenario, vehicle sensor data triggers insurance payout contracts.
In the supply chain scenario, logistics temperature and humidity data are bound with blockchain proof to ensure the quality of fresh goods.
Distributed collaboration network.
DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) supports cross-enterprise scenario collaboration, such as upstream and downstream companies in the automotive supply chain sharing production data based on blockchain to achieve JIT (Just-In-Time) supply chain optimization.
Data insights: Gartner predicts that by 2026, blockchain will improve cross-scenario collaboration efficiency by 50% and reduce transaction friction costs by 35%.
V. Scenario Wars: The decisive rule of future business.
1. Strategic high ground competition.
High-frequency scenarios: Competing for user scenarios that are essential for daily activities (e.g., WeChat dominating social communication, Douyin capturing fragmented entertainment).
High-value scenarios: Focusing on high unit price and high stickiness areas (e.g., smart cars becoming the 'third living space').
High-growth scenarios: Layout in emerging interaction scenarios such as the metaverse and AI agents.
2. Organizational Capability Restructuring.
Establish 'scenario agile teams' to break down departmental walls and quickly respond to scenario needs (e.g., ByteDance's 'front office + middle office' structure).
Adopt a scenario KPI system, shifting assessment metrics from 'sales' to 'scenario penetration rate' and 'user scenario migration costs'.
3. Risk Defense Mechanisms.
Scenario redundancy design: Avoiding reliance on a single scenario (e.g., Meituan expanding from food delivery to in-store and flash purchases).
Anti-scenario colonization: Preventing platform companies from implementing scenario hegemony through data monopolization (which requires reliance on regulation and Web 3.0 technology checks and balances).
VI. Future Outlook: The ultimate form of scenario-based survival.
Scenario as a Service (ScaaS): Companies no longer sell products but provide dynamic scenario subscriptions (e.g., future cars may charge based on 'commuting mode' or 'travel mode').
Autonomous scenario evolution: AI-driven scenarios will have self-optimization capabilities, for instance, smart home systems automatically adjust lighting and music based on the emotional state of family members.
Human-machine scenario symbiosis: After brain-computer interface technology matures, physical scenarios will deeply integrate with neural perception, forming the ultimate experience of 'consciousness as a scenario'.
Conclusion: When the technological revolution pushes society to the critical point of 'everything is a scenario', the core capability of enterprises is no longer resource possession, but a trinity of scenario insight, ecological connectivity, and value reconstruction. The future business champions will be those who can decode scenario genes and create scenario civilizations as ecological architects.
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