Good afternoon, everyone. Today is the weekend, and last night the Americans announced the latest personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for January, with all data meeting expectations, easing market concerns about rising inflation, and providing space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Encouraged by this, major U.S. stock indices rose across the board, and Bitcoin rebounded after falling to around $78,000 yesterday, briefly breaking through $86,500.
The U.S. Commerce Department released the latest personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for January on Friday, showing a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual increase of 2.5%. The core PCE, excluding food and energy, also saw a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual increase of 2.6%, all meeting market expectations, alleviating concerns about rising inflation and providing space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
In addition, Trump will host the first White House cryptocurrency summit on Friday, March 7, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is about to launch futures contracts for SOL on March 17, which has slightly improved market sentiment. Let's see the strength of the rebound in the past few days; I will only believe the bull market continues if it breaks 90,000.
The tormenting February has ended; what will March be like?
To be honest, the various crashes in February scared many people, especially those newcomers who just entered the market; they must have been quite frightened. But, in fact, the market is like this; although it is very grinding, fluctuations are normal, and the key is to stabilize your mindset. The recent decline in Bitcoin, although uncomfortable, can be considered a healthy adjustment, after all, it had risen too sharply before, and the market needs to digest it. Now that it has fallen to the support level, a rebound is also to be expected.
The current market has high expectations for March, but it is still recommended that everyone not be too optimistic. Nowadays, the strong dollar will suppress the performance of both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market; moreover, interest rate cuts seem to be a long way off, and the expectations for a rate cut in May are low. Without any significant good news in the market, it is difficult to drive prices up significantly, but there is no need to worry too much; there are a few good news: the United States will hold a cryptocurrency conference on March 7, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is about to launch futures contracts for SOL on March 17, which will slightly improve market sentiment.
Next, we still need to pay attention to some macro-level news, such as U.S. inflation data, the Federal Reserve's policy direction, and the negotiation progress on Trump’s side, as these will have a direct impact on the market.
In summary, although there are still many opportunities in the market in March, the accompanying risks are also significant, so we must remain cautious. Don’t rush in just because you see a rebound; also remember to take profits in batches, reduce positions, and set stop-losses. Especially for contract players, it is essential to control leverage well, avoid greed, as large market fluctuations can easily lead to liquidation, which is not worth the loss.
Finally, let's talk about the subsequent trends of altcoins.
Most altcoins started their market trends from early November last year, and after reaching their peak in early December, they have basically slid down like a roller coaster. Besides a few strong players like SUI, XRP, and HBAR still moving up (if we consider that rise in November as the main wave), most other coins are close to falling back to the starting point of early November.
What’s even more surprising is that ETH, known as the "king of altcoins," has actually fallen below last August's low, which is quite disappointing. However, regardless of the criticism, when looking at the daily chart carefully, the movements of altcoins are basically tied to ETH. In simple terms, if altcoins want to gain momentum, they first need to see if ETH can rise.
Therefore, to truly welcome a strong "altcoin season," we still need to wait for Bitcoin and Ethereum to stabilize and rise first, providing support for the entire market. Recently, the market has been quite volatile; although there was a rebound within 24 hours, such short-term rebounds are generally difficult to sustain and the magnitude of the rebound is not large. To truly experience an explosion, the market needs to go through a period of bottom consolidation, accumulating enough energy before it can continue to rise. Typically, the longer the bottom consolidation lasts, the more capital accumulates at low levels, which leads to stronger explosive power and sustainability in subsequent market movements.
If the market can form an upward cycle of about two months, certain strong altcoins may multiply several times, and ordinary altcoins also have the chance to at least double. However, this upward trend will not come suddenly; it usually requires at least two months of bottom formation as a foundation. During the bottom formation phase, the market typically experiences repeated tug-of-war, first slowly rising and then quickly falling back, wearing down investors' confidence like "boiling frogs in warm water."