It has dropped again.
As an old retail investor, I now feel deep fear; not to mention many newcomers who have not been in the market for long.
When the decline first started, everyone still had the energy to curse, but now there isn't even the strength to curse.
Almost all investors' assets have shrunk by almost half; this is very tragic, even more tragic than the 312 incident. That time it was a sudden drop, but now it is indeed like boiling a frog in warm water.
Keeping investors in a state of fear for a long time.
Many people have completely collapsed.
In fact, in the market experiences that Thirteen has gone through, such a magnitude of decline has been experienced by many, and especially after Bitcoin's halving, with the entire policy and economic environment heading in a good direction, such a pullback has never occurred in Bitcoin’s history.
This time, Thirteen has also gained some insights.
Ethereum has even returned to the average price of the bear market, and so has a certain altcoin, while only Bitcoin has performed well in the entire market.
However, this asset is currently leading the decline, and the entire market has to watch its reaction. Yesterday, the market thought Bitcoin was just faking a move, so altcoins did not follow the decline; many people were resistant.
Today, Bitcoin broke 8 directly, causing these stubborn individuals to finally be unable to hold on.
Most of the people selling frantically in the market are retail investors. Don’t think that institutional selling is happening just because of ETF outflows; these ETFs are composed of retail investors who are feeling the panic and are continuously selling.
Institutions are buying crazily, even imitating MicroStrategy by issuing bonds to buy Bitcoin.
So I hope everyone can hold on a little longer; those who cannot hold at this position have basically exited.
In this round of washing positions, Thirteen did not expect it to be so thorough, completely uprooting the chips of retail investors, especially those leveraged investors who went long below; this wave has been heavily washed out.
2. We have always adhered to the principle of not shorting in a bull market.
This historical experience seems to have failed in this round; shorting has been very profitable. To what position can the market drop?
If Bitcoin goes further down, the small support is at 78,000, and below that is the limit position at 74,000.
No one knows whether it can reach that point.
The entire market knows that there is a gap in the CME futures at the position of 77,000 to 78,000, and the probability of filling a gap when the market moves is as high as 95%. So everyone believes the market will return to this position to fill this gap; we also mentioned this in previous articles.
At present, it can basically be considered to have returned to this position, just a little lower and the gap can be filled. Will it be able to return to this position as hoped? Thirteen people believe that the market trend will not go as everyone expects.
It is very likely that it will consolidate at this position and then start a rebound.
Of course, returning to this position would be a good entry opportunity.
Many people are now very fearful, believing this market will directly enter a bear market; Thirteen does not believe the bull market has ended.
Everyone should have their own judgment on the cycle. If you think that this round of the market will push Bitcoin to 150,000, then our take-profit position will be at 150,000. As for how it fluctuates violently in between, it doesn't concern us much; it’s just a change in a string of numbers. Since Thirteen wrote the first article, I have always urged everyone to be wary of risks.
Always maintain a reasonable cash position; a cash position now can be lifesaving, especially for those with leverage.
The rebound in the market should not be far away; everyone must hurry to reduce their leveraged positions.
Spot + value coins are the key for you to sleep well at night these days.
3. Now, saying more positive news is useless. Because when positive news comes out, the market is still plummeting. Some say it is because Trump has implemented tariffs on Canada and Mexico, leading to panic in the investment market.
Thirteen believes that the current drop in the cryptocurrency market is not much related to tariffs, but more due to a chain of panic selling in the market. The retail investors are fleeing in panic, and some whales are also on the verge of liquidation, having to cut losses early.
According to the current trend, Thirteen still believes that this is merely a bull that is lowering its head to graze, but this head is buried a bit too low. Someone asked Thirteen, what if we really enter a bear market now?
If we really enter a bear market, everyone will hold only spot positions, plus there’s still 30% cash position, which will be the investment capital for the next two years in a bear market. If this low-probability event occurs, we will start to dollar-cost average at the bottom, where will the money come from?
Of course, in real life, everyone should work hard. If Thirteen's KOL work also becomes unmanageable and there is no income, Thirteen will also go out to find a job, even if it's driving for a ride-hailing service, just to earn money to continually dollar-cost average Bitcoin at low positions. After two years of persistence, Thirteen's assets will surely multiply several times, and then I will quit the ride-hailing job. Everyone should not think that entering a bear market is so terrifying; it’s actually just like that.
Of course, these are all low-probability events, and there is no need for everyone to worry too much. Some say they can't hold on anymore and want to cut losses; Thirteen will absolutely not do that. Thirteen would never cut losses for a low-probability event.
I hope everyone can get used to the high volatility of the crypto world.
Opportunities are for those who are prepared!
Seizing opportunities is the key to success!
What are you still hesitating about!
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