Hello Binancer...

Me again here as well as the new update about my analysis. I skipped the update yesterday and just posted a short post about Bitcoin, but now, I'm at it again.

So, without further ado, let's continue our analysis for the XLM price movement that we had before in my recent post and since my target reach, we can continue this again. Let's break into it!

Price Action Summary

Before we begin, let's fresh the detail out first!

  1. High: 0.63661 (Latest High)

  2. Drop 1: 0.63661 to 0.31232 (December 18, 2024)

  3. Bounce: 0.31232 to 0.51479 (January 14, 2025)

  4. Drop 2: 0.51479 to 0.25231 (February 28, 2025)

  5. Current Price: 0.28904 (by the time of this writing)

Elliott Wave Analysis

Bearish Scenario

The Bearish Scenario for Wave C is most likely over or can also still be going to extend the drop further. We can also consider another Wave Count Scenario apart from C Legs that we had before for the continuation of the further drop. Here's the summary of our C Legs Scenario from before:

  • Wave Count: This scenario suggests a complex corrective pattern.

  • Wave A: The initial drop from 0.63661 to 0.31232.

  • Wave B: The bounce from 0.31232 to 0.51479.

  • Wave C: The current decline from 0.51479, ongoing or ended around 0.25231 yesterday.

  • Sub-waves in Wave C: The decline from 0.51479 to 0.25231 could be a sub-wave within Wave C, and the current bounce to 0.28904 might be a minor corrective sub-wave if we talk about the further downside correction.

Fibonacci Levels (Bearish):

Retracement Levels (for potential bounces within Wave C):

  1. Based on the drop from 0.51479 to 0.25231:

    - 23.6%: 0.3134

    - 38.2%: 0.3524

    - 50.0%: 0.3835

    - 61.8%: 0.4146

  2. Extension Levels (for potential targets of Wave C):

    - This is more complex as it depends on the structure of Wave A and Wave B.

    - Assuming a simple zigzag (A-B-C), we can use the length of Wave A to project Wave C targets:

    * Measure Wave A: 0.63661 - 0.31232 = 0.32429

    * If Wave C = 100% of Wave A: 0.51479 - 0.32429 = 0.1905

    * If Wave C = 161.8% of Wave A: 0.51479 - (0.32429 * 1.618) = 0. -0.0102 (Negative Value, implying a significant drop) so we're not going by this for now since this extension levels suggest a very strong Wave C if it follows a simple zigzag pattern. However, the market rarely moves in such a predictable manner.

Bullish Scenario

As we talked about in my previous article and posts, The Wave Count in this scenario suggests a potential Wave 2 completion and the start of Wave 3, in this Wave Count, we have larger long term bullish scenario for even a bigger price up. Or simply Wave 4 completion and the start of Wave 5, which is more likely so we're going by this Wave Calculation as long as there's no invalidation that this count will not work anymore.

  • Wave 3: The initial surge from 0.07566 to 0.63661.

  • Wave 4: The current complex correction from 0.63661 to 0.25231.

  • Wave 5: Potential upcoming impulse.

Fibonacci Levels (Bullish):

Retracement Levels (for potential Wave 4):

We've already observed the price retracing below the 78.6% level, which is a deep correction. This suggests the Wave 4 is complex.

  • Extension Levels (for potential Wave 5):

    Based on Wave 3 (0.07566 to 0.63661):

    - 161.8%: 1.5462

    - 261.8%: 2.1079

    - 423.6%: 3.0168

  • We can use that calculation as our target for long term bullish scenario.

Analysis of The Chart Indicators:

  1. EMAs: The price is below all EMAs, indicating a bearish trend.

  2. MACD: The MACD is negative and below the signal line, suggesting bearish momentum.

  3. RSI: The RSI is low, indicating oversold conditions.

  4. STOCHRSI: The STOCHRSI is also low, confirming oversold conditions.

Conclusion

  1. Bearish Scenario: The bearish scenario appears more likely based on the current price action and indicator readings. The complex corrective pattern suggests that further downside is possible if we don't see a strong buying pressure and bullish momentum, The C Legs might be extended.

  2. Bullish Scenario: The bullish scenario is less likely right now considering the indicator but I'm going with this scenario and it's still possible. It would require a strong bullish reversal with significant volume to materialize.

Trading Decisions:

  1. Long Positions (High Risk): Consider long positions only if there is a strong bullish reversal with significant volume and a break above key resistance levels as I myself already shifted to Long Position and hoping for the impulsive Wave 5 to happen.

  2. Short Positions: If you want, you can consider short positions if the price breaks below 0.25231, indicating that The C Legs might be extended.

  3. Risk Management: Always use proper risk management techniques, including stop-loss orders and position sizing.

Moving Forward

  1. Monitor the Price Action: Closely observe the price action around the 0.25231 level.

  2. Volume: Pay attention to the volume during any potential breakout or breakdown.

  3. Indicators: Use the MACD, RSI, and STOCHRSI to confirm any changes in momentum.

Well, I'm going to end it here for today. Remember that this is just assumption of my speculative analysis and this is not financial advice and should not be taken into account. Let me know if you have any questions or need further clarification in the comment below, I make sure to get back at you. Also, consider giving me a like and follow me and don't forget to share this article.

Now, pick one of this pair below and click trade! Waste no more time and let your money work for you!

Last but not least, as always, choose your position calmly, trade wisely and stick to your trading plan. Investing will always be profitable as long as you stick to your plan, discipline and be patient. May you always be happy, healthy and wealthy. Happy trading and huge profit for you. Cheers... 🍻

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