In the crypto world, it is often said: 'Buy the rumor, sell the news.' But what if the news is already at hand, and the consequences could be much more serious than they seem?
In the coming days, there will be a massive unlocking of TON tokens, which could significantly affect the price. Many believe that TON will repeat Bitcoin's rise, but the reality may be much harsher.
What is happening with TON?
TON (The Open Network) is a blockchain that was once a brainchild of Telegram, but after issues with the SEC, the project has moved to independent developers. Despite this, its close ties with Telegram remain a major feature and simultaneously a weak point.
The key issue right now is the unlocking of millions of TON. This means that huge volumes of coins, which were previously frozen, will enter the market. As a result, holders will be able to sell them at the current price, locking in profits.
Why is this bad?
📉 Market pressure
When large volumes of coins flood the market, sellers rush to get rid of them to lock in profits. This can crash the price, especially if buyers cannot absorb the supply in time.
💰 Who will be selling?
Often, unlocked tokens belong to funds, early investors, and projects that simply are not interested in long-term holding. Their goal is to profit, not to support the price.
🛑 Lack of growth catalysts
Unlike Bitcoin, which is experiencing an institutional boom and preparing for halving, TON currently has no strong news that could push the price up.
What will the scenario be?
1. Start of sales
As soon as the tokens are unlocked, part of the large holders will start selling. The price could drop sharply.
2. Panic among retail investors
Ordinary investors, seeing a decline, will start dumping coins, increasing pressure.
3. Attempts to recover
After the crash, the price may stabilize, but this will take time. If the project receives positive news, the recovery may be quick, but for now, there are no such drivers.
What to do?
Don't catch a falling knife. If the price starts to drop sharply, there's no point in buying immediately — there’s a chance to buy cheaper.
Watch the volumes. If sales are occurring at high volumes, it is a clear signal that large players are exiting.
Use hedging. For those who do not want to lose money, a short position can be opened on Binance Futures.
Conclusion
TON could drop to $2 and get stuck there for an indefinite period. The project lacks obvious triggers for growth, and the unlockings add pressure to the price. In such conditions, it's better not to succumb to hype and approach trading with a cool head.
Be careful and think before investing!