Regarding the discussion of whether it is a bull or bear market, everyone may be more concerned, so I would like to share some personal views:
First of all, regarding the definitions of bull and bear markets, where does a drop count as a bear market? How long does a drop need to last to be considered a bear market? Everyone has different opinions; there is no need to argue. Therefore, the definitions are not important; what is important is how we understand the investment opportunities in this space.
Some situations that have already occurred and will continue to expand.
1. The institutionalization and stock market integration of BTC has a strong consensus. Whether it is national reserves, exchange inventory, or miner costs, it is considered a golden period in the coming years. So regardless of whether it is a bull or bear market, if it drops to 60,000-70,000, that is the miner price, and any further drop would be a discounted price.
2. A long bull market in the crypto space cannot rely solely on emotions; emotions have cycles, and we have already entered the bear market cycle. This doesn’t require looking at any indicators; those who have been in the community all along have already sensed it. At 28,000, I mentioned a lovesick girl, where just a spark could ignite her, and that was the foundation of the bull market at that time. Today, the market is like a weary bull and horse, and regardless of any stimulus, it just wants to lie still.
3. The crypto space relies on the construction of value, while the construction of price is currently not very visible, which is also the reason for the weakness of altcoins. Look at the mainstream, look at the trends, look at the chip structure. Why not buy altcoins? Because every coin has 80% of its supply that will gradually be sold to you—selling coins is the only thing the project team can do, so they can pump and increase prices, but it becomes difficult for us to trade. There will be value in the future, but it may be hard in the short term—especially now in the first-level investments, people still do not have low valuations of projects. For example, bot-type tools may still be valued at tens of millions of dollars, and some with large capital backing can be valued at over 100 million dollars. Therefore, harvesters are still reluctant to exit. Has the market dropped a lot? No. There are still many people unwilling to exit.
So, I actually don't care much about whether it is a bull or bear market; this definition has no value to me. I just make decisions based on the situation in the crypto space.
1. I hold two parts of BTC: one part is untouched because I believe it will reach 1 million USD, and I keep it in cold storage; the other part is on the exchange, ready to buy altcoins or swap for USDT at any time. This part has been continuously sold off since I mentioned in the group two weeks ago that 'this might lead to a bear market.' If there is a sudden reverse trend and everyone gets emotional again, it doesn’t matter; I can just buy again. This part is not to earn the most but to come in at a more certain time. If you firmly believe in the BTC bull market and long-term value, then your strategy for the cold wallet part aligns with mine. If you are fully invested in the bull market, including coins beyond BTC, then I would definitely be inconsistent with you. I have doubts about the value of other coins, and I don’t necessarily need to earn the most; during downturns and emotional lows, I just want to buy with the least loss.
2. I try to think using the layout of global assets to fish in places with more opportunities.
3. I seek low drawdown for my entire position. For example, during the worst times, my total floating loss should not exceed 20%. After calculating, I have to use more USDT for arbitrage and wealth management. A 10% annualized return would be great. This way, even with a 20% floating loss in Bitcoin and stocks, I can still manage, and in the future, I will have enough USDT to buy the dips during certain black swan events.
$BTC #美SEC：Meme币非证券 #SBF时隔两年再发推
