In the past few days of live streaming, many friends have been asking in the comments.

Can the newly launched $Red perform? Is there any risk in staking? What price can it be sold at after the opening?

There are many such questions. The brothers asking have some understanding of the project but are unfamiliar with pre-market trading. Some know how to trade but are not familiar with RED, and there are also complete novices who are unclear about both.

In fact, the timing of the Red project launch is quite good. As the MEME market has been booming for so long and is starting to cool down, the market is shifting towards practical projects. An oracle like Red, as a key DeFi infrastructure demand, is indeed a very prominent project at the moment.

It doesn't seem too complicated, so let's go through it together from two aspects: one project, one mechanism.

1. What kind of project is $RED?

Full name RedStone Oracles. As the name suggests, its main focus is blockchain oracles.

Regarding what an oracle is, you can think of blockchain as a closed ecosystem. Each blockchain and project runs code written in smart contracts in its own 'local area network', but smart contracts are not as intelligent in the process of interacting with each other as imagined; they do not actively fetch data from external sources. Oracles are the bridge that allows external data to access this ecosystem, and most projects relying on oracles use external data to trigger contract execution, the most typical being the liquidation of DeFi projects. Broadly speaking, the internet, IoT, financial networks, and blockchain interactions all need oracles, which is a strong barrier to entry infrastructure.

Let's put it this way: it can be considered a bit like the blockchain Ministry of Foreign Affairs; it’s important, that’s all.

In this track, you can find star projects that can be directly searched on Binance, such as $LINK , $PYTH , which are oracle projects that have shone brightly in the past few years. We will also use them as references for subsequent market cap comparisons.

2. Does RedStone have a presence in this track?

We look at the two aspects of technical strength and market position.

From a technical perspective, looking at the key points of blockchain projects, they are nothing more than the three aspects of the impossible triangle: Is it safe? Is it decentralized? Is it scalable, fast, and cheap?

AVS (Active Verification Service):

Red achieves more efficient gas costs and scalability by using the EigenLayer AVS framework to verify the accuracy and validity of price feedback data. If you don't understand, that's okay; AVS is the core concept of the eigenlayer framework, meaning it uses a new mechanism to perform 'proactive off-chain verification before going on-chain'. Data calls are on the off-chain Arweave, which reduces on-chain pressure, speeds things up, and decentralizes.

Secondly, modularization:

He refers to this system as a pull model and push model, which essentially is not much different from the Datafeed/Data Stream used by the leading Link. One is cheaper, the other slightly more expensive, with the expensive one being more precise; the cooperating projects can choose.

In terms of external performance,

Red, as a new project, did not crush but still won against the old project LINK last year. In the $2 billion liquidation event in February 2024, Redstone successfully pushed 119,000 updates within 24 hours, surpassing Chainlink in the frequency of ETH/USDC price updates by 30 points, providing more accurate price updates.

During the decoupling of Renzo (ezETH) in April 2024, RedStone kept pace with price changes better than Chainlink. During this period, RedStone released about 40 price updates within 3 blocks, while Chainlink pushed only about 20 updates in the same timeframe. This indicates that RedStone is actually faster than the leading oracle provider in the market. (Data source: Chaos Labs report)

From the data that can be collected, Red can only be described as a small sparrow pecking at a small cow; indeed impressive.

From a market perspective, RedStone's TVS (Total Value Secured) is $6.8 billion, ranking second in the oracle track, covering 71 chains and over 100 partners (such as Spark, Pendle, Ethena). It also performs well in multi-chain support, being compatible with EVM and non-EVM chains, breaking ChainLink's reliance on the ETH ecosystem and covering a wider range of application scenarios.

From the technical and market cooperation level alone, it is indeed considered strong in the current market.

3. From the perspective of token economics and similar project valuations, how much is expected?

$Red has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with an initial circulation of 28% (280 million tokens). 70% of the tokens will be locked for 12 months after TGE, with subsequent gradual unlocking over 36 months. 48.3% is used for community growth (airdrops, incentives), 20% belongs to the core team, and 31.7% is allocated to early supporters.

However, it's worth noting that early supporters need to stake back to seek greater returns. So, the initial actual circulation will still decrease, which is actually good for investors buying coins.

When comparing similar projects, you can refer to the table below.

  • Conservative prediction: Benchmarking against Pyth's $2 billion FDV, the initial price is about $2 (circulating market cap of $560 million).

  • Optimistic expectations: If market enthusiasm surges or reaches ChainLink's market cap level (about $13 billion), RED may rise to $20.

A short-term price of $20 seems unlikely, while $2 feels quite easy. The neighboring exchange has already opened contracts as a direct price reference, with today's midday price at $1.26. But be cautious, as this is a pre-market contract without spot participation. (I can't help but sigh that CEX is quite cunning, pushing without coins.)

4. How supportive is this round of Binance Launchpool?

This round can be said to be Binance's strong endorsement. Launchpool goes live: 40 million RED (4% of total supply) released through mining with $FDUSD and $USDC to attract early liquidity. For players familiar with Binance's new mechanism, this is quite common, but do you really understand the pre-market trading system and the often-discussed trading limit mechanism?

The last project that adopted Binance's pre-market trading was $Usual, which showcased its strength in pre-market trading, opening at $0.2 and soaring. In the volatile market in mid-December, it pulled up sharply, achieving an 8-fold increase in 3 days. Besides the MEME market, it serves as a strong proof of breaking the trend of falling after listing last year.

Trading limit mechanism test: Price increase is limited to 200%-400% in the first 3 days. The purpose of the trading limit is to reduce extreme volatility, curb speculation but extend the speculation cycle. In simple terms, it will pump, but this time it will pump for a longer time and be more stable. However, this mechanism can also be considered a fundamental aspect of the Binance market.

Why is there no trading limit mechanism in the blockchain market? Whether it's the big A having trading limits or even U.S. stocks having circuit breakers, it's because the blockchain cannot be monopolized. You cannot prevent other exchanges from listing the same varieties, nor can you organize trading on DEX. In a non-monopolistic free market, implementing a trading limit mechanism is essentially a thankless task. If it doesn't rise here, it will rise elsewhere, so why not go play on other exchanges? Therefore, being able to implement trading limits actually represents a certain confidence, at least on Binance, perhaps it can achieve 'sufficient monopoly' to protect crazy market makers and speculators from raising prices.

5. What risks might exist if you want to participate in Red's trading?

Whether it's mining or buying coins early, the risks are not too large. The main things to pay attention to are several aspects.

Link remains the market leader. Although Red, as an emerging project, is technically leading, there is still a distance to surpass Link and become the leader in the short term. If you are interested, continue to observe whether RedStone's actual adoption rate matches its valuation.

The token distribution of Red is relatively concentrated, and in the presence of trading limits on Binance, it is very likely that trading on Binance will be mandatory. Pay close attention to the selling pressure after unlocking at high positions. In other words, high expectations are possible, but when the selling pattern emerges, one must definitely reduce their position.

The trading limit mechanism is not like the price drop limit mechanism. In the event of a black swan event, this new mechanism will not have protective price drops or circuit breakers, so don't take this as a guarantee.

6. How should the overall participation strategy be considered?

In fact, the simplest operation is to participate in Launchpool mining (BNB pool has high priority) to acquire tokens at low cost; pay attention to price game opportunities under the trading limit mechanism after the opening, and as we just mentioned, the possibility of a short-term high point at $2 is relatively high.

Secondly, for brothers with moderate risk tolerance, it is worth considering swing trading after the market opens. After the market opens, Hiki will also live stream daily to follow Red's trend together, paying attention to the price and market sentiment after the opening to see if there are opportunities to profit.

Overall, it is a pretty high-quality trading opportunity and project. Congratulations to everyone in advance! $