Yesterday, Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 threshold, and market risk aversion surged sharply. The yen appreciated 6% in six weeks, technology stocks weakened, and investors were on edge. In July last year, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike caused Bitcoin to plummet by 20%, and now a similar scene is reappearing.
In the current market, hedge funds are using Bitcoin spot ETFs, particularly ibit and cme futures, to arbitrage for excess returns. However, as the basis approaches U.S. Treasury yields, if Bitcoin falls and narrows the arbitrage space, funds are likely to close their positions during U.S. stock trading hours, further driving Bitcoin prices down.
With Bitcoin spot prices falling, its ETFs are also struggling. According to Four Side Investor data, yesterday, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $516 million, with Ethereum seeing an outflow of $78 million, and fbdc and ibit each experiencing an outflow of $150 million. The bull market driven by ETFs is now seeing a withdrawal of funds; whether this is coincidence or a signal of a market trend change needs to be observed through changes in the cryptocurrency market, U.S. stocks, leverage, and Bitcoin strategy holdings and market capitalization.
The market premium rate for Bitcoin strategy dropped from 3.4 times last year to 1.6 times, making it more difficult for Michael Celery to finance Bitcoin purchases. Market trading activity and confidence are declining. However, the options market's annualized performance remains around 8%, and traditional arbitrage funds and leveraged returns still hold appeal, indicating that financiers have not fully withdrawn.
The impact of the bybiy hacker attack continues to escalate, with Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin experiencing significant declines this week. After the Asian session opened on Tuesday, the downward trend did not stop, with a two-day decline of 20%, putting pressure on the market. CMC data shows that the altcoin index is only 25, and among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, only 25 outperformed Bitcoin. The decline in Bitcoin has put pressure on altcoins. The effects of the bybit hacker incident and related sell-offs of Solana are still ongoing, combined with token unlocks and increased market supply, which may trigger a wave of selling.
Currently, many traders are bullish on Bitcoin; if the market continues to decline, new funds may flow in quickly. However, the altcoin market lacks new trends, and future movements remain uncertain. #比特币价格走势分析