In the past few days, the BTC market has plummeted, and we can see that some altcoins have not dropped as severely and even showed a slight rebound. This does not mean there is no room for further declines. This is because altcoins were already at a low level, and the main players are temporarily defending the market. I believe this defense will not last long.

Looking purely from the candlestick chart, the drop in altcoins over the past few days has not been as significant and does not closely follow BTC, mainly because most altcoins initially started to drop before BTC and moved faster. The 1-day MACD shows signs of bottoming out, and the 2-day and 3-day MACDs are also showing bottoms one after another. Therefore, when BTC hits a new low and starts to consolidate and rebound, these altcoins will experience a brief rebound (this is the origin of what some crypto enthusiasts call the 'altcoin season'). However, this does not mean that the market won't drop further; if there are no significant positive developments on a macro level, the next step will be to watch the weekly MACD drop below the zero line, which means the bottoming process will take a long time, leading us into a deep bear market. Once the 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day MACD rebounds for altcoins end, they will synchronize with BTC in the weekly MACD bottoming process, resulting in several main waves of decline. Each time a new low is reached, there will be a rebound, followed by a consolidation, then a continued drop, reaching new lows, consolidating again, and continuing to explore new lows until the future weekly major bottom appears. This is a typical bear market cycle characteristic in each halving cycle.

Each bear market serves as a litmus test for the market, eliminating over 90% of projects. The vast majority of altcoins will see a 99% decline from their current prices, while BTC typically drops over 66%, which means 'de-leveraging'.

For now, I am also uncertain whether we will directly enter the next halving bear market, but what I can be sure of is that the structure of the bull market has been destroyed, and we are in a transition between bulls and bears. As the floating profits from the current two years begin to show significant retraction, what we should do is clear our positions at the earliest opportunity, preserve our strength, and wait for the lowest point of the next bear market to truly buy at the major bottom.