💥Rapid price fluctuations:
In the early trading, Bitcoin once broke through $89,000 to set a record high, but then due to policy black swans (the US Bitcoin Reserve Act was vetoed), exchange security crises (Bybit was stolen $1.5 billion) and ETF fund withdrawals (BlackRock had a single-day outflow of $860 million), the price plummeted to below $84,000, with a daily drop of more than 4%.
💡Core contradiction:
1️⃣ Policy and security impact: The uncertainty of US encryption regulation has intensified, and North Korean hacker attacks have caused a collapse of user trust;
2️⃣ Funding situation deteriorated: Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of over US$1.5 billion for 7 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest time in history;
3️⃣ Technical oversold: 4-hour MACD bottom divergence and RSI oversold signals coexist, and there is a strong demand for short-term repair.
📈Key support and reversal signals:
· USD 83,000: The giant whale address increased its holdings of 20,000 BTC in a single day, which is suspected to be a left-side layout of the institution;
· $80,000: Starting point of the bull market in 2024. If it fails, it may trigger a chain sell-off;
ETF funds reversed: BlackRock IBIT’s daily outflow was reduced to US$80 million, and panic sentiment was marginally alleviated.
⚠️Operation suggestions:
1️⃣ Short-term: Try shorting at $86,000-87,000, target $83,000; wait and see if it breaks through $87,000;
2️⃣ Long-term: Open positions in batches below $80,000, stop loss at $78,000, and bet on the halving cycle repair;
3️⃣ Risk control: total position ≤ 30%, avoid leverage, and give priority to compliant ETFs.
🌌Market Sentiment:
We are currently in the stage of "liquidity exhaustion + macro high pressure", but historical data shows that large-scale institutional selling is often followed by a doubling of prices within three months. Remember: Only by surviving can you see the nuclear explosion-level rebound before dawn!