$BTC Is it a bull market for a currency, or the darkness before the dawn of a copycat?
The current market confidence in altcoins has fallen to a freezing point, and BTC.D (Bitcoin market share) and ETH/BTC exchange rate are the two most critical indicators for measuring the altcoin season.
1️⃣ BTC.D: Bitcoin market share - continues to strengthen
BTC.D is currently in a weekly rising channel and is currently testing the upper boundary of the channel. If it breaks through, it may return to the market share level in September 2019, which is the market share during the big bear market four years ago.
📌 The higher the market share, the more market funds are flowing into BTC and the lack of confidence in altcoins.
2️⃣ ETH/BTC: Altcoin Confidence Index — hits a four-year low
$ETH The ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to the July 2020 level and is currently testing the support level. If the support is broken, it may fall back to the June 2019 level.
📌 The higher the ETH/BTC exchange rate, the stronger the market's confidence in altcoins; conversely, the market's confidence in altcoins is collapsing.
The altcoin market has been in a bear market for a long time. Is it about to bottom out?
Both key indicators show that altcoins have been in the bear market for a long time, but they also indicate that the decline of altcoins may be about to bottom out.
My personal judgment is that after BTC falls below $85,000 and altcoins experience their last wave of decline, they will collectively experience a general rise (but will not reach the levels of previous bull markets), ushering in the third wave of the 2024 bull market.
Why are the trends of altcoins and BTC completely separated in this bull market?
Many people have found that only BTC continues to rise, while altcoins have collectively been halved or even chopped to the knees. What is the reason behind this?
✅ The impact of ETF funds
Since the BTC spot ETF was approved, a large amount of OTC funds have purchased BTC through ETFs, but these funds have not entered the exchange, nor do they understand or cannot purchase altcoins.
🚫 This caused the BTC price to continue to rise, but altcoins did not have enough funds overflowing and fell.
✅ Funds are rotating within the circle, and external increments are insufficient
In the past few rounds of bull markets, the surge in altcoins came from the inflow of new funds from the OTC market. In this round of bull market, the funds of altcoins are still flowing within the circle, without the support of new liquidity, resulting in an imbalance in the overall market structure.
✅ Celebrity coins suck blood, and counterfeit coins make things worse
$TRUMP 、"Celebrity coins" such as the Argentine President-related coins are frantically harvesting liquidity in the circle, making the already tight capital-strapped altcoin market even worse.
In the future bull market, will the myth of the skyrocketing of altcoins still exist?
🚨 In this bull market, it is basically impossible for altcoins to increase by ten or twenty times like in the past few bull markets.
📉 If there is no strong enough top-level narrative to attract off-market funds to enter the market, the possible future trends are: BTC rises to 150,000-200,000 US dollars, while most altcoins fall or even return to zero.
The rules of the future bull market have changed: the only coin with real value may be BTC!
The pattern of this bull market may be completely different from the past
Do you still believe that the spring of altcoins will come?
