After the most recent price action:
1) The vast majority of people in the magic internet money market have flipped bearish.
2) Market sentiment is worse than what I saw during the last bear market (Luna & FTX crashes).
3) The Fear & Greed Index is at levels comparable to the darkest days of the last crypto winter.
Let’s be real—this is not how a top looks.
The real top won’t feel like a top.
By then, everyone around you will be screaming:
> “Higher”
> “Super cycle”
> “Bitcoin to $1M”
> “New paradigm”
> “We’ll never see a bear market again”
You don’t believe me?
Go back and study history.
Now, what I see on the Bitcoin chart right now looks eerily similar to what happened in early August.
Remember that massive shakeout?
It was “over” back then too.
Then, a couple of months later, Bitcoin started its parabolic impulse toward $100K+.
I believe history will rhyme once again—look at the projection I made on the chart.
Always zoom out.
Until proven otherwise, this is nothing but a normal and healthy bull-market retracement.
Bitcoin always had multiple strong corrections on its way to the cycle top.
Why this time has to be different?
All I see right now is a sweep of the most recent lows and “kiss” of the 21W SMA after sometime away from it.
Parabolic advance, reset, tap of the 21W SMA, run again — this has been a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s history.
To wrap this up:
If we put everything together:
> TA
> Macro
> “Adoption”
> Market sentiment
Etc.
Being bearish right now doesn’t make much sense to me.
I know the most recent price action has been messing with your brains, but don’t let it cloud your judgement.
Now eyes on the weekly and monthly closures — those will bring us essential data that we’ll use to re-asses our market bias.
Eyes on the prize.