Many friends in the market often fall into the debate between bull and bear markets, but this proposition itself contains cognitive bias.

In essence, the cyclical fluctuations of the market are merely superficial; what truly determines returns is the ability to capture certain opportunities amid uncertainty.

If an account continuously appreciates, it is a 'structural bull market' for the individual; conversely, if the strategy fails, even if the market as a whole rises, the individual may still be trapped in a 'local bear market.'

This logic stems from the underlying laws of investment — the essence of returns and risks depends on cognition and behavior, rather than merely on market labels.

First, we must escape the emotional trap and return to market laws. The essence of investing is 'the way of nature' rather than 'the way of man.'

The way of man is constrained by emotions and short-term interests, manifested as chasing highs and selling lows, complaining about policies, or blindly following public opinion;

while the way of nature requires investors to calmly examine the rules, stripping away noise to focus on trends and regulations.

These views are reflected in the cycles of policies and the flow of funds,

with the three rounds of Bitcoin's rise being strongly correlated with the approval expectations of Ethereum, the influx of incremental funds, and the policy dividends of the U.S. elections, rather than being driven solely by market emotions.

Moreover, each round of market activity is accompanied by clear macro signals; we need to validate logic through data, rather than falling into the collective anxiety of 'narratives of rise and fall.'

So to summarize:

The debate over the bull and bear markets is essentially a false proposition; we need to establish a 'cycle-neutral' mindset:

Be wary of risks in fervor, and dig for value in gloom. History shows that excess returns always belong to the minority who follow the rules and maintain independent thinking.