Speaking of the SOL scandal, it really is hard to grasp. Upon careful consideration, what benefits does this storm actually bring to the subsequent market makers of SOL? Just before the massive unlocking, the scandal suddenly 'surfaced,' giving SOL a dose of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt); this drama is really thought-provoking.
First, is the consensus of SOLANA too fanatic?
I wonder if anyone has ever had such doubts: is the consensus of SOLANA too strong? It feels like the whole world is chasing SOLANA; even my friends outside the circle, who previously held a lot of ETH, have all switched to SOL. The situation inside the circle goes without saying; this round of cyclical market mainly focuses on the chain, and 80% of the trading volume on the chain occurs on SOLANA. Those little P generals and marshals all have a pile of SOL, and many even use SOL as a standard for financial management.
If the consensus is too strong, it's like a car carrying too much weight; pulling it up is strenuous. For market makers, excessive selling pressure is not a good thing. This is not much different from trading Memecoins; there’s nothing new in the financial circle.
Therefore, some speculate that this scandal and the massive unlocking 'coincidence' is actually a trap set by market makers to deeply clean out SOL followers. I know many people have already exited, and I also cleared all my SOL at a price of 190.
Second, does massive unlocking really equal selling pressure?
There is a key question here: unlocking does not mean that it has to be sold on the market. This batch of chips can completely be transferred to the market maker or other institutions wanting to participate through OTC (over-the-counter trading). 2 billion dollars divided up is not an astronomical figure.
But the market is like a startled bird; it plays on expectations. The market will assume the worst-case scenario, that this huge batch of chips will be dumped onto the market. Therefore, to avoid risk, selling SOL first is a wise choice. After all, no one knows how this batch of chips will ultimately be handled. In trading, keeping in line with the public, how can you possibly earn excess returns?
Third, what is the future trend of SOL?
My prediction is that during this period, market makers will use scandals and the expectation of massive unlocking for deep washing. As for what price it will wash to, both 120 and 130 are possible, and no one dares to guess where the bottom is. But once new positive news comes out (for example, a large amount of chips being digested through OTC, or a new SOL leading a new market trend), a big bullish candle will shoot up from the ground, and a 30% rise in SOL in a day is not surprising.
As a trader, don’t think about catching the bottom. It’s good enough to buy in when the trend is clear; don’t be greedy and want to eat from the beginning to the end.
Fourth, can BSC replace SOL?
I think the possibility is low. On the one hand, BSC lacks many infrastructures (don’t underestimate these, they are actually very important); on the other hand, BSC lacks a scale and systematic 'hair group' (i.e., ecological projects). Moreover, BSC has caused foreign investors to lose quite a bit before, and they are not very convinced now. To replace SOL, it must go global and attract all liquidity to participate. Lastly, although CZ is now in charge of BNB Chain, he seems a bit hesitant and not fully committed, which doesn’t look like someone who can accomplish great things. However, we still need to respect CZ; if he genuinely wants to do it, perhaps he can share a piece of the pie from SOL.
