On February 25, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced "Black Wednesday"—Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $90,000 mark for the first time since mid-January, hitting a low of $88,189, with a 24-hour drop of 6.8%; Ethereum (ETH) also plummeted by 12.5%, briefly losing the $2,300 level, while Solana (SOL) dropped by 15.12% to $136.5. The derivatives market went into a frenzy, with over $1.3 billion in liquidations across the network, of which 93.6% were long positions, leaving 360,000 investors severely impacted.

Trigger for the Plunge: Triple bearish resonance

  1. Macroeconomic Policy Shock: The Trump administration announced a national security investigation into copper imports, raising market fears of an escalation in the trade war leading to a tightening of dollar liquidity; the vote on the South Dakota Bitcoin investment bill has been postponed, intensifying sales as policy expectations fall short.

  2. Institutional Fund Withdrawal: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, while the CME Bitcoin futures open interest has surged by 47%, triggering a domino effect of liquidations from institutional arbitrage positions.

  3. Market Sentiment Crash: The Fear and Greed Index plummeted from 49 to 25, hitting a new low since September 2024. After the technical breakdown below the key support level of $93,500, a vicious cycle of "decline → sell-off → accelerated decline" has formed.

Key Observation Points for the Market

  • Technical Aspect: If it cannot recover to $93,500 within 3 days, it may drop to the $70,000-$75,000 range.

  • Policy Aspect: The U.S. PCE inflation data (to be released on February 26) and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike direction will determine the dollar's trend.

  • Funding Aspect: A net flow from exchanges (30-day EMA) breaking above +2 standard deviations may indicate short-term stabilization.

The current market is exhibiting a "double kill" pattern, with analysts like Arthur Hayes warning of a potential test of the $70,000 level. Meanwhile, long-term bulls still hope for a target price of $200,000. Investors are advised to maintain leverage below 3 times and pay close attention to on-chain MVRV ratios and other risk indicators.