The market is always born in despair and grows in doubt. When mainstream media starts using "Bitcoin is dead" as a headline, it is often the best time for long-term positioning. In this information-overloaded era, the ability to maintain independent thinking may be the ultimate weapon to navigate through cycles.

1. Stablecoin index: A thermometer for new capital entry

The current stablecoin index remains significantly below historical cycle peaks. This key metric for measuring new capital inflow indicates that the market is only at the initial stage of capital inflow. As the "living water detector" of the crypto market, the slow rise of this index suggests that institutional funds and retail investors remain cautious, and the real influx of funds has yet to arrive.

2. Global net liquidity index: a barometer of central bank actions

The liquidity index tracking the asset size of major global central banks and the Fed's reverse repo size has shown a trend reversal signal. The pullback of this index is highly correlated with the cryptocurrency market trends, and the current technical correction may signal an impending directional choice in the market. Notably, historical data shows that when this index bottoms and rebounds, the crypto market typically lags by 3-6 months before starting a new trend.

3. FTX's hundred billion compensation: market catalyst is about to ignite

The compensation for FTX creditors totaling $7 billion has been initiated, and the threefold effect of this huge amount of funds is worth looking forward to:

  • Direct injection: About 30% of the compensation funds may be directly allocated to crypto assets

  • Confidence restoration: Completing the compensation will eliminate the long-standing regulatory shadow

  • Siphon effect: Accelerating entry of onlooking funds to form a positive cycle

4. Giants' secret battle: The layout logic of smart money

Leading market institutions are engaged in an epic chip collection:

  • MicroStrategy: Continuously increased holdings for 11 months, with Bitcoin reserves exceeding 210,000

  • BlackRock: Spot ETF holdings have surpassed 300,000 BTC, with a weekly growth rate of 18% in custody size

  • Wall Street institutions: CME Bitcoin futures open interest has reached a historical high, suggesting the derivatives market is heating up

5. Market psychological map: Golden window in the doubt phase

The current market is in a typical "doubt-awakening" transition period, characterized by:

  • Bitcoin volatility index has fallen to a new year low (23%)

  • The fear and greed index is fluctuating in the neutral range of 55

  • The social platform discussion heat/price ratio has fallen below the critical value of 0.8

Four major technical resonance signals worth noting:

  1. Weekly TD sequence has shown a buying structure

  2. The 200-day moving average slope has turned from flat to rising

  3. MVRV ratio has returned to a healthy range (1.2-1.5)

  4. Exchange stablecoin balance has surpassed $40 billion, reaching a new high for the year

It is recommended to pay close attention to:

  • Accelerating compliance process of underlying protocols (RWA, DePIN track)

  • Liquidity-sensitive assets (BTC, ETH, SOL)

  • POS tokens with staking yields > 8%

  • CEX platform token valuation repair opportunities

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