We analyze the situation through three key aspects: technical analysis (TA), fundamental analysis (FA), and market sentiment.
1. Technical Analysis (TA)
1.1. Global Trend (1M - Monthly Timeframe)
• XRP is in a long-term upward trend.
• MACD on the monthly chart confirms a bullish trend, but there are signs of a local correction.
• RSI = 66.77 – not yet in the overbought zone (>70), but close. This is a signal of a possible pullback.
Conclusion:
• The current rise of XRP/USDC has the potential for continuation, but an overheated RSI may trigger a correction.
• If the price holds above 2.30, the bullish scenario remains in effect.
• If 2.50 is broken, the next target is 2.80-3.00.
1.2. Mid-term Trend (4H - 4-Hour Timeframe)
• On the 4H, a previous strong drop from 2.56 to 2.06 is visible, but now there is a recovery.
• MACD on the 4H is just starting to cross bullishly, indicating potential growth.
• CRSI (Commodity RSI) – actively bouncing off the oversold zone, which supports growth.
Conclusion:
• If the price holds above 2.30, a rise to 2.50 becomes a likely scenario.
• If the market cannot hold above 2.30, a retest of 2.20 is possible.
1.3. Short-term Trend (15M - 15-Minute Timeframe)
• Recent candles show a local bullish trend with an attempt to hold above 2.30.
• Volumes are increasing on the rise – this is a good signal.
• MACD on 15M is currently indicating a bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
• In the short term, XRP has chances to rise to 2.35.
• If it breaks 2.35, the next resistance level is 2.50.
• If volumes decrease, a pullback to 2.25 is possible.
2. Fundamental Analysis (FA)
2.1. News and Events
• XRP is actively involved in legal proceedings (SEC vs Ripple), but recently Ripple is gaining ground, positively impacting the price.
• Institutional demand for XRP is growing – banks are considering it for international payments.
Conclusion: fundamentally, XRP remains a strong asset.
3. Market Sentiment
• The cryptocurrency market capitalization is growing, which supports demand for altcoins, including XRP.
• Correlation with BTC – if BTC continues to rise, XRP may also strengthen.
• Fear/Greed – the market is closer to the greed phase, but not overheated.
4. Final Forecast
Bullish Scenario:
• If the price holds above 2.30-2.35, a move towards 2.50-2.80 can be expected.
• MACD and CRSI indicate a continuation of growth.
Bearish Scenario:
• If the price cannot hold 2.30, a pullback to 2.20 is possible, and in the worst case – to 2.06.
What to do?
• For trading: if the price breaks 2.35 – entry on long with a target of 2.50-2.80.
• For the long term: levels 2.20-2.30 – good zones for buying.
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Aiberg Roschild | 7Crypt
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