This article combines the characteristics of this bull market and provides some references by referring to historical data.

1. Characteristics of this bull market
The biggest characteristics of this bear market can be summarized as follows:

1. Old investors are more cautious
More and more old investors only hold BTC, the consensus on Bitcoin is that each round is larger than the last, and Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency with a community.

2. New investors enter more fiercely
Trump is the most intense wave of new users, followed by large-scale new users concentrated in Memes. However, as a meme player, I know how cruel this place can be. A month or two ago, I invested a lot of funds in Hong Kong stocks, and I had a feeling that the Hong Kong stock market is like a well-scheduled game of Go, while the cryptocurrency market, especially memes, is like being thrown into a small dark room to hack at each other.

Compared to the past, the ratio of opportunities for huge profits to the probability of going to zero in DeFi and NFTs is relatively normal—whereas memes after pumpfun are very similar to the significance of the last blur for NFTs, destroying the meaning of culture and community, leaving only extreme PvP.

If this is the beginning of a bear market, how will these new entrants think in the future? Let's take a look at historical data.

2. What did those who entered at the peak of the last bull market do?

Considering that many people entered this round because of Trump and many entered due to memes after Bitcoin broke $60,000, it is valuable to study 'What did those who entered at the peak of the last bull market do?'

Take the peak of the last bull market around November 2021
Median holding cost of BTC: $58,000
Median holding cost of ETH: $4,500

1. Operation classification
72% cut losses after falling below $30,000
(That time was MicroStrategy bottom fishing, market confidence collapsed)
18% engaged in on-chain earnings (presumably institutional large holders, diamond hands)
10% transitioned to active on-chain users

2. Behavioral characteristics
The average turnover frequency is 5 times that of bear market entrants
Leverage usage peaked at 83%
The density of complaints on social media is 7 times that of other groups

The timing of cutting losses was very late, but it also matches my expected guess. The 'bad boys' who can run fast in this market are actually few (I and my group have a high proportion of bad boys). Most people, especially newcomers, including those who came from stock trading, prefer to 'hold and not look.' In the cryptocurrency market, if you 'stop looking,' you might not have to look again later...


This actually reveals why investment guru Graham went bankrupt by bottom fishing, because the more speculative the financial market, the more people who hate losses and are unwilling to exit!

However, these people unwilling to exit will collapse and cut losses at the most fearful times in the market. In 2021, it was due to the LUNA disaster combined with FTX's collapse, and constant interest rate hikes led to large sums of money starting to exit, leaving only those who reacted slowly to cut losses at low levels—even MSTR was increasingly approaching the liquidation line, and its stock price kept falling.

In this bull market, the benefits brought by Trump's presidency may have already been priced in between $60,000 and $100,000, and negative news seems to be less than before, such as the $1.5 billion stolen from Bybit being considered normal—however, if the industry encounters a few more incidents, it will still fall into extreme fear.

Why do explosions often occur in bear markets? There is an old saying: 'When the tide goes out, you see who isn’t wearing shorts'—during a bull market, project teams and retail investors are close, building every day, whereas in a bear market, project teams are forced to painfully hand over their chips to retail investors.

3. What patterns do those who navigate through bull and bear markets have?

1. Those who continuously iterate their cognition
I should be a typical representative of this. The downside of changing quickly is that retail investors cannot keep up or understand—after all, compared to most people who are used to buying, holding, and waiting for a rise, my strategy is always to respect the market and correct mistakes immediately.

I can’t tell everyone in their ear, 'The market changes quickly, don’t be unchanging'—it wouldn’t help.

I won't elaborate on this part, moving on, I look forward to the next big opportunity in the future.

2. Those with healthy capital management
Including always maintaining 30% stablecoins or strong cash flow.
Including people with good position allocation, such as holding assets of different risk types: cryptocurrency + stock market + real estate + cash, etc. This part is very complex, so I won't elaborate. The general logic is that in a bull market, no one wants to manage finances, and no one pays attention to preservation of value—but in a bear market, people will believe in them.

3. Those with strong psychology
Establishing a 'counter-cyclical operation' mindset, the lower the fear index, the more excited people are, the more they want to buy. Of course, this should also combine with more indicators, such as MVRV, etc.

4. Many opportunities in bear markets
This is my experience, the pace is slower, opportunities are fewer, but they may be better. I am confident in seizing them—just like before, I have confidence in seizing every big opportunity, and I have done it.

Let’s keep moving forward.

#加密市场回调 $BTC #以太坊回滚争议 $ETH