This round of trend is approaching the watershed of "local bull and bear"

In each round of trend, the realized price of short-term holders (STH-RPC) is the last standard line to measure the health of the trend. Historically, this key level has always been the watershed of "local bull and bear". Once it falls below, it means that the average short-term holders have turned from a floating profit state to a floating loss state, and it is usually also a measure of whether a round of trend can continue.

Figure 1 is the relevant data of STH-RPC (red line) and BTC price (black line) in the past five years; through observation, we can easily find that:

🚩1. In the early stage of the bull market, BTC prices usually get strong support when they touch STH-RPC (see mark 1 in the figure). In other words, this is also the best time to get on the train.

🚩2. After breaking through the historical high, or when the bull market enters the middle and late stages, the price of BTC will continue to be tested. Once it effectively falls below, it usually takes several months until it stands on STH-RPC again (see mark 2 in the figure). Among them, June 24 took 4 months.

🚩3. During the breakout period, STH-RPC will become a pressure point again, and will often try to break through repeatedly without success (see the green dotted circle in the figure). This is also the most difficult time period to trade.

🚩4. Even after the BTC price fell below STH-RPC in December 2022, it directly entered the bear market cycle. It took 13 months to stand up again and get out of the bear market (see mark 3 in the figure).

Therefore, it can be said that once the price falls below STH-RPC, especially when the rebound cannot stand up again, we can confirm the end of this round of trend.

The current STH-RPC is around $92,800, and the BTC price has fallen below it during the session this morning. If it still cannot stand on this red line when the data is cut off at 8 o'clock tomorrow morning, it means that this round of trend driven by the election in October 24 may end.