$BTC **Trader’s experience: Finding certainty in uncertainty**
The trading market is like a turbulent ocean, sometimes calm as a mirror, sometimes turbulent. In this land full of opportunities and risks, every trader is like a lonely sailor, who must look up to the stars for guidance and be vigilant against reefs and storms. Years of trading experience have made me deeply realize that the true way of trading is not only a game at the technical level, but also a practice of fighting against oneself. The following are some of my experiences:
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### 1. **Respect the market and give up the obsession with "perfect prediction"**
When I first entered the market, I was obsessed with finding the 'holy grail' — trying to predict every market move with complex indicators, news analysis, or insider information. However, the market can never be completely predicted. Black swan events, collective emotional explosions, sudden influxes or withdrawals of funds can instantly collapse seemingly perfect logic.
**True wisdom lies in accepting uncertainty**. Excellent traders do not obsess over 'right or wrong', but focus on 'how to respond'. Establishing a trading system that can accommodate risk, decisively acting when the market meets expectations, and stopping losses in a timely manner when it deviates, is the key to survival.
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### 2. **Risk control: Surviving is the qualification to talk about profits**
The story of 'getting rich by heavy investment' attracts countless people like moths to a flame, but behind the survivor bias lies the silence of countless liquidators. I once witnessed a friend lose all his capital overnight due to excessive leverage. At that moment, I realized: **The primary goal of trading is not to make money, but to avoid significant losses**.
My principle is:
- **Single trade risk should not exceed 2% of capital**: even with ten consecutive losses, capital only retracts by 20%.
- **Stop-loss always comes before take-profit**: clearly define the stop-loss point before entering, and do not accept the gamble of 'let's wait and see'.
- **Position size is linked to volatility**: when the market is highly volatile, actively reduce position size to prevent being 'washed out' by random fluctuations.
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### 3. **Emotions are the biggest enemy, discipline is the only ally**
Greed and fear are human instincts, but they are contrary to trading success.
- **When profitable**: Always want to 'earn a little more', resulting in profit reversal;
- **When losing**: Expect a 'rebound to break even', ultimately sinking deeper into the mire;
- **When in cash**: Fear of missing opportunities leads to blindly chasing prices and selling at a loss.
**The solution is to mechanically execute the trading plan**. I write my strategies into clear rules (such as 'enter when breaking the 20-day moving average with volume increasing threefold') and force myself to execute like a machine. Even if a trade is proven wrong afterward, as long as it aligns with the system, there is no need for regret.
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### 4. **The market is always changing, the only constant is 'change'**
In the past decade, I have witnessed the failure of technical analysis, the plight of value investment, the rise of quantitative trading, and the madness of cryptocurrency. Trying to apply fixed strategies to all markets is like seeking a sword by carving a boat.
**Adaptability is more important than predictive ability**:
- In a bull market with clear trends, go with the flow;
- In a volatile market, sell high and buy low;
- In a bear market with depleted liquidity, it's better to stay in cash and wait.
At the same time, maintain continuous learning: from macroeconomics to algorithm models, from behavioral finance to psychology, interdisciplinary knowledge often brings unexpected insights.
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### 5. **The essence of trading is a game of probability**
Even with a win rate of up to 70%, there will inevitably be 30% failures. I once doubted myself after consecutive losses, even modifying originally effective strategies, leading to a deeper vicious cycle. It was only later that I understood: **Short-term results are filled with randomness; a system that maintains a positive expected value in the long run is the true path**.
- Record the details of each trade and conduct regular reviews;
- Focus on whether the 'trading action' is correct, rather than the profit or loss of a single trade;
- Validate the strategy with data from at least 100 trades, rather than judging by feeling.
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### 6. **Loneliness is normal; learn to reconcile with yourself**
The pain of traders is often misunderstood: when profitable, they are questioned for 'good luck', and when losing, they are ridiculed for 'not being serious'. The market does not reward your efforts; staying up late to watch the market and studying financial reports may lead to a shrinking account.
**Ultimately, trading is a solitary practice**:
- Stop proving yourself to others; account net worth is the only answer.
- Accept that 'slow is fast'; the miracle of compound interest takes time to accumulate;
- Keep a life outside of trading: exercise, read, spend time with family, and avoid being alienated by the market into a gambler.
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### Conclusion: Trading is a practice of refining the mind
Years have passed, and I still don't dare to call myself a 'master', but I have gradually learned to dance with the market. The greatest gain from trading is not wealth, but self-awareness — seeing one's own greed, fear, stubbornness, and fragility, and refining one's character in every decision. As Sun Tzu said in 'The Art of War': 'The good warrior prepares for the invincible, awaiting the enemy's vulnerability.' In an uncertain world, holding onto one's heart is the way to endure.
