Solana’s TVL is down 30%: at $10.3 billion currently, it has recovered from its low of $9.90 billion, but is still far from the $14.2 billion seen in January, indicating weak investor confidence.
Weak bearish momentum: The Ichimoku Cloud and DMI indicators show selling pressure fading, with buying momentum picking up – a potential trend reversal.
Key levels to watch: SOL must break $183 to signal a bullish recovery; failure could lead to a drop towards $159 or even $147, the lowest since October 2024.
Solana’s total value locked (TVL) recently dropped to $9.90 billion, its lowest level since November 2024, before recovering slightly to $10.3 billion. Despite this rebound, SOL’s TVL is still down about 30% from its January peak, raising concerns about the stability of its ecosystem.
Meanwhile, SOL price has taken a hit, falling 8% in the past week and over 31% in the past month. Some technical indicators point to a recovery, but bearish momentum still dominates as SOL remains trapped below key resistance levels.
TVL at all-time lows – what’s driving the decline?
Solana’s TVL stands at $10.3 billion, recovering slightly from its low of $9.90 billion on February 17 — the weakest since November 14, 2024. However, the TVL remains about 30% below its January high of $14.2 billion, indicating a decline in investor confidence.
This decline is in line with ongoing controversies in the Solana ecosystem, such as:
Accusations of symbolic extractive economics.
Criticism over the launch of the meme coin LIBRA, which may have caused capital outflows.
Since TVL measures the total capital locked up in DeFi protocols, its decline indicates a shrinking liquidity base and weak investor confidence. If Solana fails to address these issues, capital outflows could continue, putting downward pressure on SOL’s price. On the other hand, a rebound in TVL could be a bullish signal, indicating renewed investor interest.
Bearish but recovering? SOL technical indicators
Solana’s Ichimoku Cloud chart shows that SOL is still below the red cloud, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend. However:
The price is trading above the Tenkan-sen (blue) and Kijun-sen (orange), indicating some weakness in the downward momentum.
If SOL breaks above the red cloud, it may indicate a shift towards bullish momentum.
Failure to do so is likely to lead to renewed selling pressure.
Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows a shift in momentum.
The ADX has dropped to 25.4, down from 43 just two days ago when SOL dropped to $165.
+DI is rising (now at 18.4), while -DI is falling (now at 14.8) - this indicates that buying pressure is increasing as selling pressure weakens.
If +DI crosses above -DI, it may confirm a trend reversal. However, if +DI fails to maintain its momentum, SOL may continue its downtrend.
Can SOL get back $200?
SOL's EMAs are still bearish, with the short-term EMAs lagging the long-term EMAs. But there is a shift happening:
SOL price is up 4% in the last 24 hours, indicating weak selling pressure.
If the short-term EMAs cross above the long-term EMAs, it may confirm a bullish reversal.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: First target at $183 – breaking this could pave the way to $197.
Bullish scenario: If the buying momentum continues, SOL could push towards $220, indicating a strong recovery.
Bearish scenario: If selling pressure returns, SOL could retest $159. A breakdown here could lead to $147, the lowest since October 2024.
Final Thoughts - Will SOL Recover or Continue to Slide?
A falling TVL indicates weak investor confidence, but a bounce could reignite bullish sentiment.
Technical indicators are showing mixed signals, with momentum shifting but resistance levels still intact.
Key price levels at $183 and $197 will determine whether SOL will break out or remain under pressure.
At the moment, traders are watching closely - will Solana resist, or is there more downside ahead?
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