Data and trend update


Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are the author’s personal opinion and should not be considered as investment, legal, tax, business, or any other advice.


Hello, crypto enthusiasts! This is Alexey and today
fresh data indicates that we may be approaching the middle of the market cycle. Let’s figure out what’s happening and how to act.


📉 Market sentiment: from euphoria to fear


Sentiment has sharply deteriorated, demonstrating impatience, inexperience, and the emotional nature of retail-oriented cryptocurrency markets.

Fear and Greed Index

  • Events that influenced the panic:
    — Trump's meme coin ‘sucked’ liquidity out of altcoins.
    — BTC is holding in the range of 90–108k, but altcoins have dropped by 50–75%.

  • Fear/Greed Index:
          -     A year ago, with BTC priced at $70,000 - extreme greed

  • Now at 95k — “fear” (as in October 2023 at $62k).

Below we have funding rates — which measure the amounts that long positions pay to shorts every 8 hours to keep their positions open. This gives us insight into the appetite that traders have to build leverage — a fantastic indicator of sentiment/momentum.

Funding rates

‘altcoin season’ — at the minimums of the range.

Altseason Index

Data: Bitformance Index “Altseason”

*The data above covers the 200 largest assets by market capitalization with a higher 90-day return than BTC.

🔗 On-chain Bitcoin data

If you are going to invest in altcoins, we believe you need to have an idea of the direction of BTC. That’s why we focus on Bitcoin in our on-chain data updates.

In this section, we will review a number of our favorite 'cycle awareness' indicators and share where we stand today compared to the peaks of past cycles.

MVRV (market/realized value)

  • MVRV for long-term holders today is 3.96 after reaching 4.4 on December 17.

  • Long-term holders:
    — Profit +296% (peak of the last cycle — +1150%).
    — There are currently no signs of mass selling.

  • Short-term holders:


— Total profit +6%.
— In the last cycle, the peak was at +74% profit.

Remember. Short-term holders often enter the market late and tend to buy coins from long-term holders.

Coin distribution

  • Currently, the short-term holder MVRV is 1.06 (barely profitable position) after reaching 1.45 in March last year.

  • In the last cycle, the market peaked when short-term bond holders achieved 74% unrealized profit.

  • 20% of the circulating supply is currently in the hands of short-term holders (16.4% at the same time last year). Again, this does not include exchanges or ETFs. In the last cycle, markets peaked when 24% of the supply belonged to short-term holders (when we did not have ETFs). This is an interesting data point as it tells us that today there is more new money in the market than a year ago and that we are approaching the place where we peaked in percentage terms in the last cycle.

Long-term holder supply


Pi-Cycle Top Indicator

  • The Pi-Cycle top indicator has historically been an accurate tool for determining BTC market peaks. It consists of a 111-day moving average and double the value of the 350-day moving average.

  • The 111-day MA has not yet crossed the 350-day — no overheating.

  • Above we see that there is still a significant gap between the two moving averages — a sign that markets have not yet reached extreme levels.

💵 Stablecoins and ETFs

  • Liquidity growth:
    — USDC increased by $7 billion over 2 months (mostly on Solana).

  • Bitcoin ETFs:


— Over the month, inflow +3.6 billion, but in the last 2 weeks — outflow — ETH ETFs outperform BTC in inflow (735 million).

🦍 New players in the market

  • Institutions:
    — The Abu Dhabi sovereign fund (Mubadala) invested $436 million in BTC.

  • 20 U.S. states are preparing Bitcoin reserve laws.

($23 billion potential inflow).

  • Regulatory changes:
    — Banks can hold crypto (repeal of SAB121).
    — Corporations account for BTC at market value (new FASB rules).

🚨 Conclusions

  • Risks:
    — On-chain data signals the middle phase, with some even indicating late stage of the cycle.
    — Altcoin volatility persists.

  • Opportunities:
    — Institutional inflow reduces BTC volatility.
    — Legislative changes open new avenues for capital.


Disclaimer: this is not investment advice. Conduct your own analysis and consult with professionals. The author may have positions in the mentioned assets.

I would be happy with your subscriptions @alexeylux

#Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #ETF #Analysis #Investments