From the moment Bitcoin$BTC was included in the spot ETF, the entire industry structure has undergone a dramatic change. This milestone not only marks the change in the status of Bitcoin itself, but also indicates that the cryptocurrency market has entered a new stage of development. The rules of the market, the behavior of participants, and the fate of different types of crypto assets have all been redefined in this transformation.

Pre-ETF Era: Bitcoin is the Index Guide for Crypto Markets

Before the spot ETF was approved, Bitcoin has always been the core pillar of the entire cryptocurrency market, and its status is similar to that of index funds in traditional financial markets. Its price fluctuations are not only a reflection of market sentiment, but also a weathervane for the rise and fall of other cryptocurrencies.

The role of a market barometer: Bitcoin's performance often directly affects so-called 'altcoins.' When Bitcoin's price rises, altcoins typically follow suit and experience a wave of enthusiasm; conversely, when Bitcoin falls, the entire market also plunges into a slump.

Investor standards: Whether retail or institutional investors, there is a tendency to regard Bitcoin as the standard for the crypto industry. The maintenance of Bitcoin's market cap above 50% has become a benchmark for assessing the overall health of the market.

During this period, Bitcoin's price fluctuations are almost a direct reflection of the supply-demand relationship and community sentiment within the cryptocurrency market, with relatively weak ties to external macroeconomic factors.

Post-ETF era: The distortion of Bitcoin's index function

However, with the introduction of spot ETFs, Bitcoin's role has undergone a fundamental transformation. The emergence of ETFs has significantly lowered the barriers to investing in Bitcoin, allowing traditional financial institutions, hedge funds, and even ordinary investors to participate through familiar securities market channels. This change completely breaks Bitcoin's traditional function as an index of the crypto market.

Deep binding with the global economy: Bitcoin's price has begun to closely correlate with global money supply (M2) and other macroeconomic indicators, no longer limited to the internal logic of the crypto industry. M2, as a key measure of global liquidity, reflects the monetary policy and economic conditions of various central banks. Through the ETF bridge, Bitcoin is directly embedded in this vast financial system, and its price fluctuations are increasingly driven by external factors such as inflation expectations and interest rate changes.

The disconnection of internal logic in the cryptocurrency market: In the past, Bitcoin's price fluctuations would drive the entire crypto ecosystem's vitality. However, in the post-ETF era, this correlation has significantly weakened. The performance of other cryptocurrencies has begun to decouple from Bitcoin's price movements, and market participants are gradually realizing that Bitcoin's upward trend alone can no longer lift the entire industry.

This distortion means that Bitcoin is no longer an all-encompassing representative of the crypto market but is gradually evolving into an independent financial asset, with its fate more closely tied to the pulses of the global economy.

The pricing disproof of industry 'value' tokens

In the post-ETF era, those 'value' tokens that claim to have practical application scenarios and intrinsic value are facing unprecedented challenges. These tokens typically rely on specific blockchain projects, claiming to achieve long-term value growth through technological innovation or ecological construction. However, under the mixed reactions of cyclical price behavior and technical implementation, their vulnerabilities are exposed.

The shift of market enthusiasm: As Bitcoin becomes the preferred asset for hedging and institutional investment, the demand from investors for other tokens has significantly decreased. The prices of many 'value' tokens have failed to follow Bitcoin's rise and have instead fallen due to a lack of sustained capital inflow.

A re-examination of value: The market has begun to question whether the actual applications of these tokens are genuine. The previously hyped high valuations are gradually being disproved, and investors realize that many projects' practical prospects are far off, or even remain merely in the conceptual hype stage.

This trend indicates that the attention of large funds in the crypto market is shifting from decentralized 'value experiments' to a centralized pattern centered around Bitcoin.

The complete demise of the altcoin cycle

In the past, the altcoin market often exhibited obvious cyclical characteristics: Bitcoin's rise would trigger capital outflow, leading to a boom in altcoins; when Bitcoin corrected, altcoins would collectively fall. However, with the arrival of the post-ETF era, the overflow of funds from Bitcoin's rise will not increase the market value of altcoins, which essentially ends the logic of the altcoin cycle.

Liquidity is concentrated in Bitcoin: The convenience and safety of ETFs have attracted a large inflow of traditional funds into Bitcoin, while the pool of funds for altcoins is shrinking. Serious traditional investors are more inclined to view Bitcoin as a long-term asset rather than a short-term speculative play.

The decline in market activity: Trading volume for altcoins has decreased, project development has slowed, and many once-vibrant communities have gradually quieted down. The prosperous scene of altcoins is gone, replaced by the market's indifference towards them.

The demise of the altcoin cycle marks a new phase of shrinking volume in the cryptocurrency market, moving away from group wealth creation.

The epoch-making significance of Meme tokens

In stark contrast to the decline of altcoins, Meme tokens have experienced explosive growth in the post-ETF era, with tools like gmgn becoming increasingly mature. The valorization of spiritual transmission, information transmission, and event transmission has been fully pushed onto the blockchain.

The issuance of $TRUMP by Trump before assuming the presidency is the dividing point at which this logic reaches its peak. The issuance of Trump Coin marks the expansion of Meme tokens from a mere entertainment and cultural symbol to the financialization of political events. The issuance and trading reflect the market's pricing behavior regarding the 'American president.' By buying and selling Trump Coin, investors are essentially speculating on the pricing of the 'token issued by the first American president,' and this financialization of 'event transmission' makes Meme tokens a new type of speculative tool, with blockchain becoming a pricing tool for events, information, and spirit.

Extremely differentiated market speculation

In this fragmented market, old logic has disappeared, and new logic is emerging. A broad market rally is no longer possible; there is money in the market waiting for new logic to be implemented. Types of pump.fun will not disappear but will continue to increase, and the pricing logic of all things, as the market's temporarily strongest branch line, will become increasingly crazy with this gradually insane era.

@tinsp X with the same name