Everyone, please be responsible for your own capital. Don’t be a fool or idiot in the market. You need to clearly understand the state of market operations with every trade, the logic behind your trade, where your take profit and stop loss levels are, and whether your risk-reward ratio is reasonable.
PS: Do not blindly follow me, do not think that what I say is correct. I can't achieve 100% accuracy; after all, this market is extremely easy to manipulate. Respect the market, respect the market, respect the market. Analysis is like a weather forecast. I hope everyone can learn and then share their own views with me for mutual progress.
News Hotspot:
1. Bybit has recovered about 70% of its ETH reserves.
After being attacked on the 21st, Bybit's ETH reserves once plummeted to 61,000 coins. As of the time of writing, according to CryptoQuant data, Bybit holds approximately 308,100 ETH, recovering about 70% from 439,000 coins on February 20.
Pal's note: This is one reason why #ETH has remained strong over the weekend, but it is still only caused by short-term supply exceeding demand; the long-term expectation remains weak.
2. Cryptocurrency companies sponsoring sports teams is increasing.
Cooperation between cryptocurrency companies and sports teams is increasing, ranging from sponsorships of Formula One racing teams to football, mixed martial arts, and even snooker. Cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase, Gate.io, and XBO.com, stablecoin issuer Tether, and cryptocurrency betting sites like Sportsbet.io and Cloudbet have recently signed significant partnerships with sports organizations.
Pal's note: Sports is a huge traffic pool, and cryptocurrency companies sponsoring sports is essentially about gaining traffic, which promotes the spread of cryptocurrency. In the long run, it's a good thing; traffic growth can bring more funds and vitality.
3. Michael Saylor may increase his Bitcoin holdings.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has released more information related to the Bitcoin Tracker. He stated: 'I don’t think this reflects what I did last week.' According to previous patterns, MicroStrategy usually discloses its Bitcoin purchases the day after related news is announced.
Pal's note: I personally believe that Michael's news has lost its influence on the short-term market. As long as he doesn't sell, everyone has accepted that he bought.
4. Hong Kong Asia Holdings increases its Bitcoin holdings.
According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement, Hong Kong Asia Holdings has announced that its board has approved further increasing its investment in Bitcoin and has conducted a series of transactions to purchase approximately 7.88 units of Bitcoin on the cryptocurrency trading platform in the public market on the 20th of this month, at a total cost of approximately HKD 5.9369 million, funded from the group's internal resources. The group currently holds about 8.88 units of Bitcoin, with an average cost of HKD 756,200.
Pal's note: Long-term positive, more companies are accepting BTC investments.
5. This week, five cryptocurrency projects will have token unlocks, releasing a total value of about $290 million. On February 25, ALT unlocked approximately 240 million tokens (about $11.72 million), accounting for 2.401% of the total supply.
On February 26, ENA unlocked approximately 12.86 million tokens (about $5.94 million), accounting for 0.086% of the total supply.
On February 28, approximately 31.34 million OP tokens (about $36.66 million) were unlocked, accounting for 0.73% of the total supply.
On March 1, SUI unlocked approximately 64.72 million tokens (about $22 million), accounting for 0.647% of the total supply.
On March 1, ZETA unlocked approximately 44.4 million tokens (about $14.75 million), accounting for 2.114% of the total supply.
6. Overall macro news is still okay; this week, there will be many speeches from various Federal Reserve chairs.
1. BTC
Weekly chart
1) Still in oscillation; currently, it has been oscillating around the 97 position for three weeks. The characteristic of an oscillating market is accumulation and raiding. After raiding the high and low points from the previous week, it has returned to this position.
2) Currently, continue to observe the price reaction after testing the high and low points from last week.
3) The weekly trend is still that the lower 89 SSL must be raided; it just depends on when it will be raided. My personal market expectation is around 84, and then a malicious spike may reach 78.
3) Currently, the market is experiencing liquidity tightening. Without negative or positive news, it is expected to maintain volatility; just be patient.
Daily chart
1) Using the K-line from February 3 as a range, this is basically the high and low points for February. Currently, the market is oscillating around EQ 970. Let's observe the accumulation of the market here. If it maintains oscillation above EQ and moves upward, there may be an opportunity to raid the BSL, looking at 103. However, if it oscillates below EQ, we must pay attention to further downward raids testing 91 and 89.
2) Here we currently set last week's high and low points 994 and 934 as the oscillation range. Currently, there are no trading opportunities at the EQ position; let's wait and see for a test of PWH or PWL before seeking trading opportunities.
3) Through the clearing chart, we can see that the accumulation of long and short positions is not much, it just depends on how the market chooses.
H1 chart
1) Currently, there is not much happening; this is still what was said on Saturday. Here, BK refuses to distribute and continues to look downward; the weekend is just oscillating here.
2) Currently, let's first look at the raid on the SSL; here, consider taking profits on short positions and pay attention to opportunities for accumulation and long positions. If it breaks below the SSL, we will continue to watch for raids on last week's point 934 of the PWL.
