#市场情绪观察 On February 22, 2025, the Bitcoin market sentiment showed a complex and negative state, mainly manifested as follows:

Panic sentiment spread

• Bybit exchange was hacked and assets worth more than $1.5 billion were stolen. This incident caused panic in the market. Bitcoin experienced several short-term sharp declines in the early morning of February 22, falling below $95,000 per coin within 24 hours, and the lowest was $94,830.3 per coin. According to CoinGlass market data, in the past 24 hours, more than 170,000 cryptocurrency positions were liquidated across the entire network, with a total liquidation amount of $568 million.

The divergence between long and short positions has intensified

• From a technical perspective, the uncertainty of Bitcoin's price trend has further intensified the divergence between long and short positions. Some analysts believe that if Bitcoin falls below the average realized price in 2025, it may bring greater downward price pressure. But some institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank predict that Bitcoin will rise to $500,000 during Trump's term.

The overall wait-and-see attitude is strong

• QCP Capital analysis pointed out that BTC's market capitalization accounts for nearly 60%, approaching a four-year high, while ETH and other altcoins continue to be weak. Bitcoin prices are stable in the middle of the range, implied volatility is declining, the market lacks a clear catalyst, and the trend is dominated by macro factors. Funds are mainly short-term transactions and have not yet bet on a major market breakthrough.

Still confident in the long term

• Binance data shows that the number of wallets holding at least $100 in Bitcoin has increased by 25% in the past year to nearly 30 million, indicating that new participants are constantly pouring into the market and some investors are still confident in its long-term value. Ark Invest's latest report shows that Bitcoin is expected to achieve its 2030 price target, up to $1.5 million in a bull market.